> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.outandoutstayer.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # No Betting action but who are the trainers to watch out for at York. - URL: https://www.outandoutstayer.com/no-betting-action-but-who-are-the-trainers-to-watch-out-for-at-york/ - Published: 2026-08-18T04:42:25.000Z - Updated: 2026-08-18T04:42:25.000Z - Author: The OutandOutStayer Again the racing action is really poor so we will keep our powder dry for York. York is one of those racecourses where reputation can be expensive. The Knavesmire attracts big fields, valuable races and many of Britain's most powerful yards. That means runners from fashionable trainers are rarely missed by the betting market. Ahead of the Ebor Festival, we have gone back through the last three years and looked at the trainers who have been regular visitors to York, restricting the study to yards with **more than 50 runners at the track**. Rather than concentrating solely on winners, we have looked particularly at three statistics: - **Strike Rate** – the percentage of runners that actually won. - **PRB – Percentage of Rivals Beaten** – a much deeper measure of overall performance than win percentage alone. - **Betfair SP ROI** – the theoretical return from backing every runner at Betfair Starting Price. This gives us an indication of whether the betting market has historically **underestimated or overestimated a trainer's runners at York**. The results are for the last three years and throw up some fascinating differences. ## The Standout York Trainers | Trainer | Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | PRB | Betfair SP ROI | | ------------------ | ------- | ------- | ----------- | --------- | -------------- | | **Andrew Balding** | 160 | 32 | **20.00%** | **60.25** | **+36.01%** | | **William Haggas** | 139 | 29 | **20.86%** | **59.51** | **+32.27%** | | **Ralph Beckett** | 97 | 17 | **17.53%** | **59.24** | **+54.89%** | | **Richard Hannon** | 71 | 12 | **16.90%** | **62.46** | **+41.42%** | | **Ed Walker** | 66 | 8 | **12.12%** | **58.48** | **+22.36%** | | **Kevin Ryan** | 210 | 15 | 7.14% | 48.76 | **+23.71%** | There are four names in particular that leap off the page. ## Andrew Balding – Possibly the Strongest Overall Profile Andrew Balding's York record is exceptional. From **160 runners he has produced 32 winners**, giving him a superb **20% strike rate**. More importantly for us, his **60.25 PRB** shows that this is not simply the product of a handful of winners. Balding's horses consistently perform well relative to the opposition. A PRB above 50 indicates that a trainer's runners are beating more horses than they are being beaten by. Once we start getting towards **60**, we are looking at a genuinely powerful course record. And there is another important element. Backing every Balding York runner at Betfair SP would have returned approximately: **+36.0% ROI.** That is remarkable considering Balding is hardly an obscure trainer whose runners escape the attention of the market. His A/E figure of **1.47** reinforces the picture. His horses have won considerably more often than their market prices would have suggested. ### York verdict **One of the first yards we should look at whenever Balding sends a runner to York.** The combination of strike rate, PRB and profitability is extremely strong. --- ## William Haggas – York Means Business William Haggas actually has the highest strike rate amongst the major yards in our sample. His figures read: **139 runners** **29 winners** **20.86% strike rate** **59.51 PRB** **+32.27% Betfair SP ROI** There isn't a weak number amongst them. Haggas runners at York haven't simply won frequently – they have also consistently beaten a high percentage of their rivals. Perhaps most interestingly, despite Haggas being one of Britain's most respected trainers, the market has still apparently failed to price his York runners aggressively enough. A **32% Betfair SP ROI** from 139 runners is difficult to dismiss as simply a couple of lucky results. His **A/E of 1.31** provides further evidence that his York runners have historically offered value. ### York verdict **Haggas at York demands enormous respect.** If one of his runners also scores strongly on our own ratings, it should immediately become interesting. --- ## Ralph Beckett – The Market May Still Underestimate Him If we were looking purely for the most interesting betting profile, Ralph Beckett would have a strong claim. His record: **97 runners** **17 winners** **17.53% strike rate** **59.24 PRB** **+54.89% Betfair SP ROI** A near **55% return at Betfair SP** is extraordinary. Unlike some apparently profitable trainer records, there is plenty of substance underneath the ROI. His strike rate is excellent and his PRB of **59.24** confirms that Beckett runners regularly run very competitive races at York. That makes him very different from a trainer whose positive ROI might have been created by one freak 50/1 winner. ### York verdict **One of the most interesting York trainers from a value perspective.** Beckett runners deserve particularly close attention when the market appears lukewarm. --- ## Richard Hannon – Outstanding Numbers Perhaps the most striking PRB figure in the entire sample belongs to Richard Hannon. From 71 runners: **12 winners** **16.90% strike rate** **62.46 PRB** **+41.42% Betfair SP ROI** A **62.46 PRB** is outstanding. It tells us that Hannon's York runners aren't simply landing the occasional big race – as a group they are performing extremely strongly. His **A/E of 1.82** is also the highest amongst the major yards analysed. In simple terms, Hannon has been producing far more York winners than the market expectation contained in their prices. The sample is smaller than Balding or Haggas, so some caution is appropriate, but the strength of all three measures makes the record extremely difficult to ignore. ### York verdict **A major positive trainer angle.** Hannon runners should probably receive more respect in our York analysis than the general betting market has historically afforded them. --- # Ed Walker – Quietly Very Effective Ed Walker won't necessarily be the first trainer people associate with York, which may be precisely why his figures are interesting. His 66 runners have produced: **8 winners** **12.12% strike rate** **58.48 PRB** **+22.36% Betfair SP ROI** Once again, all three measures point in the same direction. His runners perform well, win at a respectable rate and have remained profitable at Betfair SP. ### York verdict **A trainer worth upgrading at York, especially when our own analysis already gives the horse a chance.** --- # Kevin Ryan – An Interesting Different Type of Angle Kevin Ryan is worth discussing separately. He has had **210 runners**, giving us one of the largest samples: **15 winners** **7.14% strike rate** **48.76 PRB** **+23.71% Betfair SP ROI** His overall performance statistics aren't comparable with Balding, Haggas or Beckett. The PRB is actually slightly below 50. Yet backing all 210 runners at Betfair SP would have produced a **23.7% profit**. That suggests something slightly different. Ryan may not necessarily be a trainer to follow indiscriminately at York, but **his winners have historically arrived at prices that compensated handsomely for the losers**. This could potentially be particularly relevant in York's big-field handicaps and sprint races, where some of his runners may be overlooked. ### York verdict Don't upgrade every Kevin Ryan horse purely because it is trained by Ryan, but **don't dismiss one simply because the market does**. He appears capable of producing profitable York winners at prices. --- # The Fascinating John Gosden Statistic John Gosden's figures demonstrate precisely why we shouldn't use strike rate alone. His York record is excellent: **75 runners** **15 winners** **20% strike rate** **61.30 PRB** On racing performance alone, those numbers are exceptional. But the Betfair SP return is: **\-21.13%.** That isn't an indictment of Gosden's York record. Far from it. It is an indictment of the **price**. The market knows that Gosden runners at York are dangerous and his runners are often overbet. His horses win plenty of races and comprehensively outperform the average runner, but punters have historically had to pay a premium to back them. His A/E of **1.04** is much closer to market expectation. ### York verdict **Respect the horse – question the price.** A Gosden runner may have an excellent chance without necessarily representing an excellent bet. That distinction is fundamental to value betting. --- # Karl Burke – Good Record, But Usually Well Found Karl Burke has had plenty of York runners: **197 runners** **18 winners** **9.14% strike rate** **54.57 PRB** **\-16.08% Betfair SP ROI** The PRB is good and his winners are certainly numerous enough to command respect. But unlike Balding, Haggas and Beckett, Burke hasn't rewarded blind support. The market appears well aware of his York record. ### York verdict **Positive trainer; not automatically a positive bet.** We need the price to be right. --- # The Big Warning Signs The study also contains several extremely interesting negative records. These aren't trainers we should automatically oppose – racing statistics should never be used that crudely – but the numbers suggest their runners have historically been **overestimated by the York betting market**. ## Tim Easterby The biggest sample belongs to Tim Easterby: **294 runners** **7 winners** **2.38% strike rate** **48.14 PRB** **\-72.68% Betfair SP ROI** That is a striking set of statistics. Nearly 300 runners gives this considerable credibility. York is a local track for the Easterby operation and consequently plenty of runners make the journey. But historically, following them blindly would have been extremely expensive. ### York verdict **Require strong evidence from the individual horse rather than treating York as a positive trainer angle.** --- ## Richard Fahey Another major northern yard with a surprisingly ordinary record: **279 runners** **14 winners** **5.02% strike rate** **50.50 PRB** **\-41.74% ROI** The PRB is almost exactly average. That tells us Fahey's runners haven't actually performed disastrously. The bigger issue is price. They have simply failed to win often enough relative to market expectation. ### York verdict **Potentially over-bet because of trainer reputation and geographical association with York.** --- ## David O'Meara O'Meara's numbers tell a similar story: **214 runners** **10 winners** **4.67% strike rate** **49.58 PRB** **\-47.00% Betfair SP ROI** Again, the PRB suggests roughly average overall performance. But the win return has been poor. ### York verdict Another well-known Yorkshire trainer whose runners may attract **more market support than their York results justify**. --- # Charlie Johnston – A Particularly Poor Record One of the strongest negative profiles belongs to Charlie Johnston. From 82 runners: **2 winners** **2.44% strike rate** **40.52 PRB** **\-91.62% Betfair SP ROI** Unlike some of the other negative ROI trainers, the PRB doesn't offer much consolation. A figure of **40.52** indicates that these runners have generally been beaten by considerably more rivals than they have defeated. ### York verdict On this three-year evidence, **York has emphatically not been a positive course for the yard**. Any Johnston runner would need to make a particularly compelling case on our other ratings. --- # PRB Can Reveal Something the Win Figures Miss There are also trainers whose statistics demonstrate why PRB is such a useful addition to traditional win percentages. **Jim Goldie**, for example, has an excellent **55.11 PRB** from 64 runners but only two winners and a **\-80.54% Betfair SP ROI**. Similarly, **Ed Bethell** records a very respectable **56.35 PRB**, but only four winners from 63 runners and a **\-45.35% ROI**. These horses have frequently **run well without winning**. That distinction could be important. Rather than treating them simply as negative trainer angles, these could potentially be yards to investigate for: - Place markets - Each-way betting - Back-to-lay opportunities - Horses likely to outrun their finishing position or price without necessarily winning That is something worth investigating separately. --- # Beware the Big-Price ROI Outlier There is one other important lesson from the numbers. Michael Easterby shows a remarkable **+41.13% Betfair SP ROI**, despite only four winners from 96 runners and a very weak **42.17 PRB**. That immediately raises a flag. The average odds of his runners are extremely high and therefore one or two big-priced winners can transform an ROI calculation. This is precisely why we shouldn't use ROI in isolation. For our purposes, the strongest trainer angles are those where: **Strike Rate + PRB + ROI + A/E all point broadly in the same direction.** That is why Balding, Haggas, Beckett and Hannon are so compelling. --- # Our York Trainer Watchlist Going into the Ebor Festival, these are the yards we will particularly be watching. ### Strong Positive **Andrew Balding** 20.0% SR | 60.25 PRB | +36.0% ROI **William Haggas** 20.9% SR | 59.51 PRB | +32.3% ROI **Ralph Beckett** 17.5% SR | 59.24 PRB | +54.9% ROI **Richard Hannon** 16.9% SR | 62.46 PRB | +41.4% ROI ### Positive **Ed Walker** 12.1% SR | 58.48 PRB | +22.4% ROI **Kevin Ryan** 7.1% SR | 48.76 PRB | +23.7% ROI ### Excellent Trainers – But Watch the Price **John Gosden** 20.0% SR | 61.30 PRB | **\-21.1% ROI** **Karl Burke** 9.1% SR | 54.57 PRB | **\-16.1% ROI** ### Historically Expensive to Follow at York **Richard Fahey** – **\-41.7% ROI** **David O'Meara** – **\-47.0% ROI** **Tim Easterby** – **\-72.7% ROI** **Charlie Johnston** – **\-91.6% ROI** --- # The Betting Lesson Perhaps the most important point from the exercise is that **trainer success and betting value are not the same thing**. John Gosden has an outstanding York record. His horses win races and his PRB is exceptional. But everybody knows it. Andrew Balding, William Haggas, Ralph Beckett and Richard Hannon have not only produced excellent results – their runners have, remarkably, still generated positive returns at Betfair SP. That is far more interesting to us as punters. At the other end of the spectrum, trainers such as Tim Easterby, Richard Fahey and David O'Meara may appear natural York trainers because they send large numbers of horses to the track and are strongly associated with northern racing. But familiarity does not necessarily equal profitability. As we work through the Ebor Festival races this week, **trainer record will never replace our assessment of the individual horse**. It can, however, provide another valuable piece of evidence. And when one of our top-rated horses is trained by **Balding, Haggas, Beckett or Hannon**, the last three years suggest we should pay particularly close attention. **The Out and Out Stayer**