Yesterday gave us exactly the start to the Ebor meeting we were hoping for.

Maltese Cross at 3.85 and, even better, Item at 14.5 both did the business and ensured a very healthy profit on the opening day.

The one disappointment was Misunderstood, who again did himself no favours, messing up the start before eventually finishing fifth. I've given him enough chances now. He goes out of the notebook — he has cost us enough!

Overall, though, an excellent day and we move on with the bank nicely strengthened.

Day Two at York looks every bit as difficult. There are some big fields, draw questions and several races where finding the winner is only half the battle — getting the right price remains everything.

We also have one bet away from York at Newmarket.

1.50 YORK – STAR OF STATE

STAR OF STATE – Tissue 6.07

The opening Lowther Stakes is an intriguing race and one that could give us some useful early information about both the ground and any developing draw bias.

Our top-rated horse is Libertango, but the draw makes life considerably more difficult and that is enough to make us look elsewhere at the prices.

The one we really like is Star Of State.

An €85,000 yearling, she is a half-sister to winners Yaahobby and Aussie Nation, while her dam was herself a winner over 6f and 7f as a juvenile.

More importantly, she looks an exciting prospect.

She confirmed the promise of her debut in emphatic fashion at Leopardstown five weeks ago, bolting up by nine lengths over 6½f on good ground. That was the performance of a filly capable of making the jump into Pattern company.

There is also some significance in connections targeting this particular race.

This is a considerably deeper test, but Star Of State looks the type who could still have plenty of improvement to come.

The problem is price.

Our tissue is 6.07, and there is absolutely no point getting involved significantly shorter than that.

BETTING PLAN

STAR OF STATE – 1 POINT WIN (NO BET UNLESS 6.07 OR BIGGER)

We will also watch this race very closely for clues regarding ground and draw ahead of the rest of the York card.

2.25 YORK – SATELLITE OF LOVE

This is another fascinating contest.

SUN GODDESS – Tissue 2.50

Sun Goddess comes out top on our ratings and brings easily the strongest established form into the race.

She was caught only in the final 100 yards in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot before heading to the Curragh just a week later and winning at Group 2 level.

She then took another substantial step forward when landing the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh just 11 days ago.

On pure form she is the one they all have to beat.

The concern is the draw.

Ryan Moore may need to be at his very best to overcome it and, taking that into account, our tissue price is 2.50.

SATELLITE OF LOVE – Tissue 7.23

The alternative — and our preferred bet at the prices — is Satellite Of Love.

He is a brother to juvenile winner Leblon Beach, closely related to the useful Dorney Lake and a half-brother to Peggy's Angel.

He knew exactly what was required when winning on debut at Windsor over 6f and then took a significant step forward when following up at Newbury 33 days ago.

Two runs. Two wins.

He also has the significant advantage of a good draw, while the stable has an outstanding recent record in this particular race.

That combination makes him very interesting.

Our tissue is 7.23 and the market is getting close to giving us what we want.

BETTING PLAN

SATELLITE OF LOVE – 1 POINT EACH-WAY at 7.23 or bigger

3.00 YORK – CENTIGRADE, BULLET POINT & YORKSHIRE

Now we enter proper York handicap territory.

A big, competitive field and there are three horses on our radar.

CENTIGRADE – Tissue 5.00

Centigrade is the most interesting of them.

A €120,000 purchase, he is the first foal of a half-sister to the smart sprinter Sergei Prokofiev.

The form of his two juvenile starts worked out extremely well and, despite having to overcome a 20-month absence, he returned to win a Southwell novice in June.

What particularly caught the eye was the turn of foot he showed.

He now goes handicapping from a mark that leaves room for further progress and he represents a yard perfectly capable of improving this type.

There could be plenty more to come.

BETTING PLAN

CENTIGRADE – 1 POINT WIN at 5.00 or bigger

BULLET POINT – Tissue 10.00

Bullet Point is also very interesting.

He developed into a smart handicapper during 2025 and, most importantly, won this very race last year.

His first few appearances this season haven't quite matched that level, although his latest run at Ascot was considerably more encouraging when finishing second 12 days ago.

He is now only 1lb higher than when winning this race twelve months ago.

We know he stays the trip, we know York suits him and his prominent racing style should allow him to get into a good position.

At the right price he has a strong chance of hitting the frame — and possibly better.

BETTING PLAN

BULLET POINT – 1 POINT EACH-WAY at 10.00 or bigger

YORKSHIRE – Tissue 30.00

There is also one at a much bigger price who could outrun his odds.

Yorkshire has undergone a breathing operation and has returned to something approaching his best recently.

He was only narrowly beaten at Doncaster last month before confirming that improvement when third at Haydock 12 days ago, where he also demonstrated that the mile is within his compass.

He remains 3lb below his last winning mark and, importantly in a race like this, he is well drawn.

This is undoubtedly tougher, but at a big enough price we don't need him to win to make the bet pay.

BETTING PLAN

YORKSHIRE – 0.5 POINTS EACH-WAY at 30.00 or bigger ( 4 places or more)

3.10 NEWMARKET – VENETIAN LION

VENETIAN LION – Tissue 2.66

Our only bet away from York comes at Newmarket.

Venetian Lion has an excellent pedigree.

He is closely related to French juvenile winner Golden Crown and is a half-brother to several winners including the smart Forest Of Dean and English Oak.

His dam was also a useful performer and comes from a high-class family.

Venetian Lion has already shown that he stays this sort of trip and acts on both Tapeta and fast turf.

He confirmed the improvement shown on his handicap debut when winning a five-runner handicap at Nottingham earlier this month.

The interesting element of that performance was that a slow gallop probably disguised his superiority over most of the field.

He looks capable of progressing again and this is exactly the type of improving three-year-old we like to keep onside.

BETTING PLAN

VENETIAN LION – 2 POINTS WIN at 2.66 or bigger

3.35 YORK – YORKSHIRE OAKS

KALPANA – Tissue 2.32

Now for the class act of the afternoon.

Kalpana has developed into a magnificent mare.

Tall, attractive and extremely consistent, she stays 1½m, handles a variety of surfaces and ground conditions and possesses that invaluable combination of being a strong traveller with a serious turn of foot.

Her performance at Ascot last time was exceptional.

Having chased home Calandagan in last season's King George, she turned the tables in this year's renewal and was particularly impressive over the final two furlongs.

That performance confirmed her position among the very best fillies and mares in training and fully vindicated the sporting decision to keep her in training as a five-year-old.

She has an outstanding record at Ascot, but there is nothing in her profile to suggest that York shouldn't suit.

If she reproduces her King George performance, I think she wins.

Simple as that.

The opposition is strong enough to ensure we still demand our price, but this is the horse we are prepared to press hardest on today.

BETTING PLAN

KALPANA – 3 POINTS WIN at 2.32 or bigger

THE FINAL THREE AT YORK – NO BETS

The final three races on the York card are exactly the sort of races where discipline becomes more important than having an opinion.

All are extremely difficult puzzles and we won't be getting involved.

For those interested in our ratings, however, our top-rated horses are:

4:10 York - A LA PROCHAINE

Tissue: 5.84

4.45 York – RISING TIGER
Tissue: 11.04

5.20 York – ALBAYDAA
Tissue: 14.00

They are the most tentative of selections and there will be no official bets.

TODAY'S BETTING PLAN

1.50 York – Star Of State
1 pt WIN No bet unless 6.07+

2.25 York – Satellite Of Love
1pt each-way at 7.23+

3.00 York – Centigrade
1pt win at 5.00+

3.00 York – Bullet Point
1pt each-way at 10.00+

3.00 York – Yorkshire
0.5pt each-way at 30.00+

3.10 Newmarket – Venetian Lion
2pts win at 2.66+

3.35 York – Kalpana
3pts win at 2.32+

PRICE FIRST. HORSE SECOND.

Yesterday was a reminder of why we work to our own tissue rather than simply trying to find winners.

Maltese Cross at 3.85 and Item at 14.5 produced a very nice day's profit.

Today is harder.

York will almost certainly produce horses we like that we simply cannot back because the market doesn't give us the price.

That's fine.

Our job isn't to back winners at any price.

Our job is to back horses when the price is bigger than the chance.

Good luck today.

The OutandOutStayer