21/07/26 - Nottingham 4.45 - Darzah Looks the Value in a Fascinating Nottingham Fillies’ Handicap

Nottingham 4:45 – Hospitality at Nottingham Racecourse Fillies’ Handicap (Class 4) Tuesday 21 July 2026 | 1m 75y | Good to Firm | Five runners

Only five fillies line up for this extended-mile handicap, but it is a particularly interesting contest in which every runner can be viewed as potentially progressive. Distant Shore, Porth Eilian and Darzah bring the strongest recent form, while Great Mates remains lightly raced enough to improve again for Marco Botti.

The market currently favours Distant Shore, but our ratings place Darzah at the top of the field. At an available price of around 3.8, she looks the most attractive betting proposition.

Darzah tops our ratings

Darzah produced a clear career-best performance when winning on her second handicap start at Newmarket. Patiently ridden, she began to make progress two furlongs from home, took the lead inside the final furlong and found enough to hold Luna Celeste without being subjected to an overly hard ride.

The runs off a mark only 3 lb higher for that success, which appears reasonable given the possibility that she had more in hand than the winning margin suggests.

A 375,000-guinea yearling, Darzah also possesses a pedigree that offers plenty of encouragement. She is the first foal of a mare who won between seven furlongs and just short of ten furlongs and was placed in several significant races, including the Rockfel Stakes, Balanchine Stakes and Cape Verdi Stakes.

All four of Darzah’s appearances have come over a mile, so there are no concerns about the distance. More importantly, she remains open to further improvement as she gains experience.

Our model gives her the highest composite rating in the race at 95.7, ahead of Porth Eilian and Distant Shore. She is also supported by strong jockey and trainer ratings, with Tom Marquand riding for William Haggas.

Darzah was available at around 4.5 on Monday evening and has shortened to 3.8, but that price remains slightly bigger than our tissue of 3.5.

Distant Shore brings strong Sandown form

Distant Shore is an obvious danger following an excellent second at Sandown on her first attempt over a mile.

Held up after racing keenly, she made progress from over two furlongs out but was forced to concede first run to the winner. She stayed on strongly to take second late in the race and may have been unfortunate not to win.

That performance suggests the longer distance suited her, while her pedigree also supports the view that a mile is within her range. She is a half-sister to Fondo Blanco, a smart performer who stayed a mile, and her dam was successful over seven furlongs.

Distant Shore should continue to progress, but there is a possible tactical concern. We expect this race to be run at only a steady pace, and she may once again find herself trying to make up ground against rivals who are positioned closer to the lead.

At approximately 2.2, she is also considerably shorter than our tissue price of 3.3. She may prove the best filly in the race, but her current odds leave little room for error.

Porth Eilian could be dangerous in front

Porth Eilian may hold the tactical advantage.

She is the most likely leader in a race containing little obvious early pace, and Callum Rodriguez could be allowed to dictate matters from the front. In a five-runner field on quick ground, that could make her difficult to pass.

She arrives after winning readily at Beverley, where she tracked the pace before moving to the front over a furlong from home. That was her second victory from three starts since entering handicaps, and there is no obvious reason to believe she has reached her limit.

Her pedigree is another positive. Porth Eilian is a half-sister to several winners, most notably the smart Point Lynas, who also represented the Ed Bethell stable and continued to improve with age.

Our model makes her the second-highest-rated runner and assesses her fair price at around 5.6. With prices close to 7.2 available, she represents a possible alternative to Darzah, particularly for those who expect the race to become tactical.

Verdict

Distant Shore has strong form claims and could easily improve again, but her short price does not fully account for the possibility of a slowly run race.

Porth Eilian is respected as the probable leader and could prove difficult to catch if allowed to control the tempo. However, Darzah is our top-rated runner and appears to have been treated leniently with only a 3 lb rise for her latest victory.

She remains unexposed, is proven at the distance and represents the powerful William Haggas and Tom Marquand combination. Although the market has already shortened from 4.5 to around 3.8, that price remains acceptable against our tissue of 3.5.

Selection: Darzah at 3.8
Main danger: Porth Eilian

20/07/26 Ayr 3.30 - Jordan Electrics Can Overcome the Draw at Ayr

3.30 Ayr – Fergie & Myra Happel Ayr Gold Cup Trial Handicap

Jordan Electrics is the positive selection in today’s six-furlong Class 3 handicap at Ayr, where the ten-year-old has several factors in his favour as he attempts to end a lengthy losing sequence.

His position in stall 7 of 9 is not ideal, particularly over Ayr’s straight six furlongs, but the draw may be less of an obstacle if Paul Mulrennan can use his natural early speed. Jordan Electrics is one of the most obvious candidates to go forward, and a positive start could allow him to gain racing position.

That ability to secure the lead could prove important. Rather than being held up and potentially left isolated from his higher stall, the aim should be to establish a prominent position and make his rivals react to him.

There were encouraging signs when Jordan Electrics finished third in a stronger Class 2 handicap at Hamilton on Friday. A nine-time winner at that course, he was well supported in the market and produced his best performance of the season. He led for much of the contest before being headed inside the final two furlongs and was unable to match the finishing speed of the principals late on.

Nevertheless, it was a clear step back in the right direction. He was competing in a higher grade than may be necessary at this stage of his career and did plenty right from the front. Turning out again only three days later suggests that he has taken the race well and that connections believe he is ready to build on the performance.

The handicapper has also offered some assistance. Jordan Electrics has been eased from a mark of 84 to 82 and now drops from Class 2 into Class 3 company. At his peak he was capable of performing from considerably higher ratings, so he is becoming dangerously well treated if the Hamilton run was the beginning of a genuine revival.

First-time cheekpieces provide another possible source of improvement. Headgear is never guaranteed to transform a horse, but it could help sharpen his concentration and encourage him to travel with greater purpose. Combined with the drop in grade, reduced rating and quick return to the track, the cheekpieces make this an appealing opportunity.

Veblen Good looks the principal danger. He performed better than the bare result suggests on his latest start, having been positioned further back than the two horses who finished ahead of him. He was also forced to switch when beginning his challenge before staying on strongly. That effort indicated he may still have more to offer for David O’Meara under circumstances that allow him to use his finishing speed more effectively.

However, Veblen Good may need the race to unfold in his favour, whereas Jordan Electrics has the tactical pace to take control of his own position. Should Mulrennan get him into a comfortable rhythm at the head of affairs, he could prove difficult to pass after receiving an uncontested or relatively inexpensive lead.

Clonmacash and Dandy Magic are others capable of becoming involved, but Jordan Electrics brings strong course-and-distance credentials, a favourable class move and much more encouraging recent form than his overall losing run might suggest.

The draw presents a challenge, but it is one he has the early speed to overcome. With his handicap mark falling, first-time cheekpieces applied and Friday’s Hamilton performance pointing towards a return to form, Jordan Electrics is taken to lead and make a bold attempt to get back to winning ways.

18/07/26 Newbury 5.20 - All Moonshine Can Light Up the Newbury Finale

Newbury 5.20 – British Stallion Studs EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap (Class 3)
The final race at Newbury today may contain only six runners, but it presents an intriguing clash between several progressive fillies. The one who appeals most is All Moonshine, ridden by Jason Watson for the in-form Andrew Balding stable.

This £30,000 contest is run over Newbury’s straight seven furlongs on good-to-firm ground. All Moonshine carries top weight of 10st from stall two, but her official rating of 87 may still underestimate her ability. She has won three of her five starts, including two victories over seven furlongs, and remains far less exposed than the majority of horses typically encountered in a Class 3 handicap.

Royal Ascot Run Better Than It Looks

All Moonshine’s finishing position in last month’s Kensington Palace Stakes does not tell the full story.

Making her turf debut after a four-month absence, she was pitched into a fiercely competitive 24-runner handicap over a mile. The field split into separate groups and All Moonshine found herself racing on the far side, which proved to be the wrong place to be.

She led that group, travelled comfortably for much of the race and remained firmly involved entering the final furlong. Her effort understandably weakened late on, but she still finished ahead of every other runner who raced on her side of the course.

Rather than exposing any limitation, the performance suggested that she was capable of competing at that level when circumstances are more favourable. It was also her first experience of turf and came following a 126-day break, so there are legitimate reasons to expect her to improve for the outing.

Before Ascot, All Moonshine had completed a hat-trick on the all-weather. Her victories included a decisive two-and-a-half-length success on her handicap debut at Kempton, and she has now won three of her four races under today’s jockey. Watson’s record aboard the filly stands at two wins from three rides.

The Return to Seven Furlongs

There is an argument that All Moonshine may eventually prove best over a mile, but dropping back to seven furlongs should not inconvenience her in this company.

She has raced three times over today’s distance, winning twice and finishing placed on the other occasion. The strong-travelling qualities she displayed at Ascot should be particularly effective in a smaller field, where she is unlikely to face the traffic problems or positional disadvantages associated with a major festival handicap.

The Balding yard is also operating in excellent form. At the time of writing, the stable has recorded 11 winners from 61 runners during the previous fortnight, an 18% strike rate. Watson has been riding with similar confidence, partnering seven winners from 33 rides in the same period.

Those figures provide further reassurance that All Moonshine should arrive ready to produce her best.

The Tactical Question

The principal concern is the possible lack of a genuine pace.

There is no obvious confirmed front-runner among the six declarations, and a slowly run race could develop into a sprint from the final two furlongs. That scenario would place an emphasis on positioning and might disadvantage any horse held up too far from the leaders.

However, this may also present Watson with an opportunity.

All Moonshine demonstrated at Ascot that she is perfectly comfortable racing prominently and taking responsibility for her group. From stall two, Watson can allow her to stride forward, dictate the tempo and avoid becoming trapped in a tactical contest controlled by one of her rivals.

The ideal ride would be to establish a sensible rhythm through the opening half of the race, gradually increase the pressure approaching the final quarter-mile and then use All Moonshine’s stamina to stretch the field. Rather than waiting for a sprint, Watson may be better served making the race a proper test from two furlongs out.

The official pace forecast describes the race as likely to be evenly run, but in such a small field the early decisions made by the jockeys could prove decisive.

Assessing the Opposition

New Vega is potentially the biggest danger. The €450,000 daughter of New Bay won a Doncaster novice over this distance last season and subsequently ran creditably in stronger company at Deauville. She begins her handicap career from a mark of 92 and is clearly open to improvement, but she has not raced for 338 days. That absence is significant when facing a race-fit and progressive rival.

Velvet Rhythm arrives in the best recent form, having won three times at Catterick this season. Her latest seven-furlong victory was achieved readily, and a further rise in the weights may not prevent another good performance. However, this represents her first attempt in Class 3 company and is a stronger test than those she has faced during her recent winning sequence.

Lightning Polka showed more when tried over seven furlongs in a first-time hood at Newmarket, while Brisk Symphony has previous winning form at Newbury and could bounce back after finding six furlongs too sharp last time. Tavana returns to handicap company after contesting a Listed race, although she must rediscover her best juvenile form.

Verdict

All Moonshine’s Royal Ascot result is easily forgiven. She raced on the unfavoured part of the course, led her group and remained competitive until the closing stages despite returning from four months off and making her turf debut.

Today’s smaller field should allow Jason Watson to put her speed and stamina to much better use. The lack of pace is a potential complication, but it can be turned into an advantage if he is positive from the outset and controls the race from the front.

New Vega and Velvet Rhythm both command respect, but All Moonshine brings the strongest combination of proven ability, tactical versatility and remaining potential. She looks capable of progressing beyond her current mark of 87 and can make her class tell in the closing stages. Target price is 3.2 BSP.

11/07/2026 Newmarket 4.35 Preview: Double Rush Ready for the Group 1 Test

The Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai July Cup brings together several of the strongest Royal Ascot sprint form lines in a fascinating clash between the established older horses and an unusually strong group of three-year-olds. Eleven runners are set to tackle the straight six furlongs, with the ground officially described as good to firm on Saturday morning.

Commonwealth Cup winner Venetian Sun, Japanese star Satono Reve, King Charles III Stakes winner Mission Central and Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee hero Almeraq all command respect. However, at the available prices, Double Rush makes considerably more appeal to the OutandOutStayer team.

Double Rush Can Continue His Rapid Rise

Double Rush has followed almost exactly the same route to Royal Ascot as More Thunder did last season, winning valuable six-furlong handicaps at both the Craven and Guineas meetings. Unlike More Thunder, who was narrowly denied in the Wokingham, Double Rush completed the hat-trick—and each of his victories came from a higher handicap mark than More Thunder faced at the corresponding stage.

His first start for Andrew Balding produced an immediate transformation. Racing from a mark of 90, he powered almost five lengths clear at Newmarket before returning at the Guineas meeting and winning again despite competing under a penalty. Racing TV’s analysis noted that he was officially 8lb ahead of the handicapper for that second success.

The Wokingham provided a much sterner examination. Double Rush raced in midfield before moving into contention over two furlongs out, taking the lead inside the final furlong and finding enough under pressure to hold on. He edged slightly left when challenged but continued willingly, showing that he possesses determination as well as raw speed.

That victory came from another 10lb higher mark and extended his record for the Balding stable to three wins from three starts. Andrew Balding revealed afterwards that former trainer Charles Hills had always regarded the colt as potentially very good, and his performances this season have justified that confidence.

On our assessment, his Wokingham performance is not far removed from the level achieved by the leading runners in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee earlier on the same card. He must improve again, but his upward trajectory strongly suggests that further progress is possible. He is not merely a handicapper being thrown hopefully into a Group 1—he looks like a Group horse who has been working his way rapidly through the handicap system.

Oisin Murphy returns to the saddle, having ridden him for his first two wins of the season, and Double Rush is available at approximately 7/1 to 9/1 at the time of writing. That represents a much more attractive risk-to-reward proposition than taking a short price about runners whose claims are already fully reflected by the market.

Venetian Sun Sets the Standard Among the Three-Year-Olds

The OutandOutStayer team backed Venetian Sun in the Commonwealth Cup, and there is no question that she is a major player again. She travelled strongly at Ascot, moved smoothly into contention and did enough after leading inside the final furlong to record her sixth victory from six starts over sprint distances. She is also a previous winner over the July Course and receives 9lb from the older males.

Nevertheless, her Commonwealth Cup victory was not as visually impressive as her previous success in the Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock. The firmer surface may have played a part, but she will probably need to reproduce—or improve upon—her Haydock performance against these seasoned older sprinters.

There is also a small additional uncertainty. Karl Burke revealed during the week that the filly had shown signs of being in season. It may have no effect whatsoever on her performance, and she remains the runner to beat, but it is another reason to be cautious about supporting her at short odds.

Satono Reve Deserves a Group 1 Victory

Satono Reve is arguably the most established top-level sprinter in the field. The seven-year-old is a dual Grade 1 winner in Japan and has now finished second in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee at Royal Ascot in consecutive seasons. This year he was beaten only a nose by Almeraq after racing close to the pace and staying on strongly.

His form involving Hong Kong champion Ka Ying Rising gives him a level of international sprint form few of these can match. The possible concern is the different nature of the test. Ascot’s stiff finish gives late-running sprinters time to build momentum, whereas the July Course can place greater emphasis on travelling speed and immediate acceleration.

Christophe Lemaire is in the plate and Satono Reve is likely to be involved, but his price leaves less room for error than Double Rush’s.

Mission Central Steps Back Up to Six Furlongs

Mission Central produced one of the most striking finishes of Royal Ascot when coming from an unpromising position to win the five-furlong King Charles III Stakes. Still with plenty to do entering the final furlong, he quickened sharply under Ryan Moore and arrived in the final strides.

The Ballydoyle runner has now won three consecutive races and appears to have hopefully put the temperament issues of his juvenile season behind him. He has already won over six furlongs, while his three-year-old weight allowance gives him an important advantage over Double Rush, Satono Reve and Almeraq.

The question is whether a strongly run six furlongs will blunt some of the explosive acceleration he showed over the minimum distance. He is undoubtedly improving, but this represents another step forward against proven six-furlong specialists.

Almeraq Cannot Be Ignored

The Royal Ascot runner who must not be overlooked is Almeraq. He defeated Satono Reve in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee and arrives having won both starts this season. His Ascot performance established him as a genuine Group 1 sprinter rather than simply a progressive prospect.

He lacks the generous price available about Double Rush, but his form is already proven at the required level. Any assessment of the July Cup must place him among the principal dangers.

Pace and Draw

There should be no shortage of speed, with Quinault and Coppull both comfortable racing prominently. Double Rush is drawn in stall 11, close to Venetian Sun in nine, Satono Reve in eight and Mission Central in seven. That concentration of major contenders towards the same side should reduce the danger of Double Rush becoming isolated, while Oisin Murphy can decide whether to track the three-year-olds or move across towards the established pace.

OutandOutStayer Verdict

Venetian Sun is respected and may ultimately confirm herself as the outstanding three-year-old sprinter, while Satono Reve, Mission Central and Almeraq bring genuine Group 1 form to the contest.

However, Double Rush is the runner whose price most underestimates what he may still achieve. He has improved significantly with every start for Andrew Balding, has already recorded three high-class performances this season and showed in the Wokingham that he can handle a large field, a strong pace and sustained pressure.

This is undoubtedly his toughest assignment, but his current rate of progress gives him every chance of bridging the gap from elite handicap company to the highest level. At the available odds, he looks a very solid each-way selection and should be firmly involved in the finish.

Selection: Double Rush — each-way

Main dangers: Almeraq, Venetian Sun and Satono Reve

11/07/26 Newmarket 2.15 Preview: Machadadorp Can Complete the Hat-Trick

The 2.15 at Newmarket is a competitive seven-furlong Class 2 handicap, but Machadadorp looks capable of making a successful transition into handicap company. She tops our ratings with a composite figure of 108.0 and is priced at 4.2 on our tissue, representing a 23.4% estimated chance of winning.

Machadadorp arrives seeking a hat-trick after defying a penalty last time, when she quickened clear with another promising filly before holding on narrowly. That performance suggested she is potentially useful, while her pedigree—being out of a Listed-placed mare—offers further encouragement that she can continue progressing as the level of competition rises. She is drawn four, should be able to obtain a good position, and the forecast strong pace ought to help her settle before making her challenge.

The main tactical danger could be True Test. Hold-up horses often require plenty of luck over this course and distance, but the expected strong pace may bring her finishing speed into play. She has previously won after trading considerably higher than her Betfair Starting Price, so she should not be dismissed should she become outpaced or appear in trouble during the early stages.

Our value alternative is Ruby’s Angel, who is available at around 16/1 compared with our tissue price of 10/1. She produced a better performance than the bare result suggests behind Dark Thirty at Chester, having been hampered early, shuffled backwards and then denied a clear run during the closing stages. Despite those difficulties, she recorded a strong time figure—three pounds better than the class standard—and was still keeping on when short of room. The concern is that Newmarket presents a very different test from Chester, but at the available price she looks underestimated.

Song N Dance completes our top three. She has finished first or second on each of her last five starts and confirmed her recent improvement when returning to turf last time. She travelled prominently, challenged over a furlong out and was given every opportunity, although her effort flattened out late. She remains consistent and should handle the conditions, but at a much shorter price than Ruby’s Angel she offers less obvious value.

Verdict

Machadadorp is the selection to complete the hat-trick and confirm herself as a filly capable of progressing beyond handicap company. Ruby’s Angel is the more speculative value play at double-figure odds, while Song N Dance is respected for her consistency.

1. Machadadorp
2. Ruby’s Angel
3. Song N Dance

Selection: Machadadorp
Value suggestion: Ruby’s Angel

09/07/26 Newmarket 3.00 — Betway Handicap Preview

The 3.00 at Newmarket looks a strong and highly competitive 3-y-o sprint handicap, but our ratings are firmly pointing towards Thunder Call, who comes out clear at the head of our figures. Our top three are 1. Thunder Call, 2. Sea Cookie, and 3. Calico Blue, with our tissue prices at 5.7, 17.0, and 8.4 respectively.

The key form line may well be last month’s big 3-y-o sprint handicap at York, where Thunder Call shaped like a colt still very much on the upgrade. He is bred to possess both speed and a touch of stamina, being closely related to smart performers including Skardu and Shigar, and there remains a strong feeling that he has more to offer. The return to a strongly run 6f should suit, and he is taken to confirm his superiority over Red Spells Danger, who has improved since being dropped back to this trip.

Sea Cookie is also respected. He arrives chasing a hat-trick and produced a taking performance over this course and distance last time, travelling through the race before finishing strongly up the stiff Newmarket climb. That effort continued his race-by-race progression and suggested that he is still ahead of the handicapper. With only 6f starts on his record and further improvement still possible, he is a bigger-priced runner who deserves to be on the shortlist.

Our Notebook horse Calico Blue also makes plenty of appeal and is third on our ratings. He has shaped as though this return to 6f is exactly what he needs, and his previous efforts suggest there is more to come now he gets conditions more in his favour. For the full case on Calico Blue, please refer to the Notebook Horses section.

Overall, Thunder Call is the horse to beat on our numbers and makes most appeal as the progressive runner with the strongest form profile. Sea Cookie is the value danger at bigger odds, while Calico Blue remains one to keep firmly onside from the notebook.

10/07/26 3.35 Newmarket – Falmouth Stakes Preview

The Tattersalls Sceptre Sessions Falmouth Stakes is the feature race on the second afternoon of Newmarket’s July Festival, with seven fillies and mares set to contest this Group 1 over a mile on good-to-firm ground.

Our Ratings

1. Precise — tissue price 2.50
2. Blue Bolt — tissue price 4.30
3. Evolutionist — tissue price 16.00

PRECISE was unable to demonstrate the full extent of her superiority in the Coronation Stakes, but she still found a way to win and this contest should unfold much more favourably. A cleaner start and a more straightforward passage would give her every opportunity to produce the authoritative performance that appeared possible at Royal Ascot.

The Ballydoyle filly had previously established herself as the leading three-year-old miler with an impressive success in the Irish 1,000 Guineas, reversing earlier Newmarket form with True Love. She arrived at Ascot with particularly strong credentials but was slowly away and consequently raced further behind the pace than was probably intended.

She then had to make a significant move just after halfway to close on the leaders. Despite using energy earlier than ideal, she reached the front around two furlongs out and had the race under control entering the final furlong. Touleen finished strongly after encountering some interference, but Precise always appeared capable of doing enough.

It was a more workmanlike victory than her Curragh performance, although the circumstances provide a reasonable explanation. Her pedigree and the strength she continues to show at the finish suggest that she may ultimately prove even better over ten furlongs. However, she remains the outstanding filly over a mile at present and receives a valuable weight allowance from the older runners.

BLUE BOLT represents the principal danger. Andrew Balding’s four-year-old is unbeaten in two starts this season and produced a career-best performance when defeating Jancis in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot. She must concede 9 lb to Precise under the weight-for-age conditions, but her combination of maturity, tactical speed and an increasingly impressive finishing burst makes her a serious Group 1 contender.

She travelled strongly towards the outside of the field at Ascot before quickening decisively to take control inside the final two furlongs. That performance represented another step forward from her comeback victory at Goodwood and confirmed that she is now ready to compete consistently at the highest level.

Blue Bolt should again finish ahead of Jancis, whom she beat convincingly at Ascot, and rates the most likely runner to take advantage should Precise fail to receive a smooth passage. The good-to-firm surface should hold no concerns, while her ability to accelerate sharply could prove especially valuable on the July Course.

The potentially underestimated runner is EVOLUTIONIST, who is rated third on our figures at a tissue price of 16.00.

She produced an excellent performance in the 1,000 Guineas over Newmarket’s Rowley Mile, having already won in France earlier in the spring. Ridden more positively than on some of her previous appearances, she raced prominently on the far side, led her group approaching the final two furlongs and remained in contention until the closing stages.

Although unable to match the winner’s finishing speed, she kept on strongly and reversed her previous form with the two fillies who had finished ahead of her in the Fillies’ Mile. She appeared physically stronger and more mature than she had as a juvenile, and that Guineas performance demonstrated that she belongs in this company.

Evolutionist needs to improve again to defeat Precise, but her ability to race close to the pace could place her in an advantageous position if the race becomes tactical. At a double-figure price, she makes considerably more appeal than several runners with less convincing claims to a place.

Verdict

Precise may have been slightly better than the bare result in the Coronation Stakes, where a slow beginning and an early mid-race move prevented her from showing her full capability. This race should be more straightforward and she is fancied to extend her sequence of Group 1 victories with authority.

Blue Bolt is progressing rapidly and can confirm her Royal Ascot superiority over Jancis to claim second, while Evolutionist is the interesting outsider and completes our top three.

Selection: PRECISE
Forecast: 1. Precise 2. Blue Bolt 3. Evolutionist