Again the racing action is really poor so we will keep our powder dry for York.

York is one of those racecourses where reputation can be expensive.

The Knavesmire attracts big fields, valuable races and many of Britain's most powerful yards. That means runners from fashionable trainers are rarely missed by the betting market.

Ahead of the Ebor Festival, we have gone back through the last three years and looked at the trainers who have been regular visitors to York, restricting the study to yards with more than 50 runners at the track.

Rather than concentrating solely on winners, we have looked particularly at three statistics:

• Strike Rate – the percentage of runners that actually won.
• PRB – Percentage of Rivals Beaten – a much deeper measure of overall performance than win percentage alone.
• Betfair SP ROI – the theoretical return from backing every runner at Betfair Starting Price. This gives us an indication of whether the betting market has historically underestimated or overestimated a trainer's runners at York.

The results are for the last three years and throw up some fascinating differences.

The Standout York Trainers

There are four names in particular that leap off the page.

Andrew Balding – Possibly the Strongest Overall Profile

Andrew Balding's York record is exceptional.

From 160 runners he has produced 32 winners, giving him a superb 20% strike rate.

More importantly for us, his 60.25 PRB shows that this is not simply the product of a handful of winners. Balding's horses consistently perform well relative to the opposition.

A PRB above 50 indicates that a trainer's runners are beating more horses than they are being beaten by. Once we start getting towards 60, we are looking at a genuinely powerful course record.

And there is another important element.

Backing every Balding York runner at Betfair SP would have returned approximately:

+36.0% ROI.

That is remarkable considering Balding is hardly an obscure trainer whose runners escape the attention of the market.

His A/E figure of 1.47 reinforces the picture. His horses have won considerably more often than their market prices would have suggested.

York verdict

One of the first yards we should look at whenever Balding sends a runner to York.

The combination of strike rate, PRB and profitability is extremely strong.

William Haggas – York Means Business

William Haggas actually has the highest strike rate amongst the major yards in our sample.

His figures read:

139 runners
29 winners
20.86% strike rate
59.51 PRB
+32.27% Betfair SP ROI

There isn't a weak number amongst them.

Haggas runners at York haven't simply won frequently – they have also consistently beaten a high percentage of their rivals.

Perhaps most interestingly, despite Haggas being one of Britain's most respected trainers, the market has still apparently failed to price his York runners aggressively enough.

A 32% Betfair SP ROI from 139 runners is difficult to dismiss as simply a couple of lucky results.

His A/E of 1.31 provides further evidence that his York runners have historically offered value.

York verdict

Haggas at York demands enormous respect.

If one of his runners also scores strongly on our own ratings, it should immediately become interesting.

Ralph Beckett – The Market May Still Underestimate Him

If we were looking purely for the most interesting betting profile, Ralph Beckett would have a strong claim.

His record:

97 runners
17 winners
17.53% strike rate
59.24 PRB
+54.89% Betfair SP ROI

A near 55% return at Betfair SP is extraordinary.

Unlike some apparently profitable trainer records, there is plenty of substance underneath the ROI.

His strike rate is excellent and his PRB of 59.24 confirms that Beckett runners regularly run very competitive races at York.

That makes him very different from a trainer whose positive ROI might have been created by one freak 50/1 winner.

York verdict

One of the most interesting York trainers from a value perspective.

Beckett runners deserve particularly close attention when the market appears lukewarm.

Richard Hannon – Outstanding Numbers

Perhaps the most striking PRB figure in the entire sample belongs to Richard Hannon.

From 71 runners:

12 winners
16.90% strike rate
62.46 PRB
+41.42% Betfair SP ROI

A 62.46 PRB is outstanding.

It tells us that Hannon's York runners aren't simply landing the occasional big race – as a group they are performing extremely strongly.

His A/E of 1.82 is also the highest amongst the major yards analysed.

In simple terms, Hannon has been producing far more York winners than the market expectation contained in their prices.

The sample is smaller than Balding or Haggas, so some caution is appropriate, but the strength of all three measures makes the record extremely difficult to ignore.

York verdict

A major positive trainer angle.

Hannon runners should probably receive more respect in our York analysis than the general betting market has historically afforded them.

Ed Walker – Quietly Very Effective

Ed Walker won't necessarily be the first trainer people associate with York, which may be precisely why his figures are interesting.

His 66 runners have produced:

8 winners
12.12% strike rate
58.48 PRB
+22.36% Betfair SP ROI

Once again, all three measures point in the same direction.

His runners perform well, win at a respectable rate and have remained profitable at Betfair SP.

York verdict

A trainer worth upgrading at York, especially when our own analysis already gives the horse a chance.

Kevin Ryan – An Interesting Different Type of Angle

Kevin Ryan is worth discussing separately.

He has had 210 runners, giving us one of the largest samples:

15 winners
7.14% strike rate
48.76 PRB
+23.71% Betfair SP ROI

His overall performance statistics aren't comparable with Balding, Haggas or Beckett.

The PRB is actually slightly below 50.

Yet backing all 210 runners at Betfair SP would have produced a 23.7% profit.

That suggests something slightly different.

Ryan may not necessarily be a trainer to follow indiscriminately at York, but his winners have historically arrived at prices that compensated handsomely for the losers.

This could potentially be particularly relevant in York's big-field handicaps and sprint races, where some of his runners may be overlooked.

York verdict

Don't upgrade every Kevin Ryan horse purely because it is trained by Ryan, but don't dismiss one simply because the market does.

He appears capable of producing profitable York winners at prices.

The Fascinating John Gosden Statistic

John Gosden's figures demonstrate precisely why we shouldn't use strike rate alone.

His York record is excellent:

75 runners
15 winners
20% strike rate
61.30 PRB

On racing performance alone, those numbers are exceptional.

But the Betfair SP return is:

-21.13%.

That isn't an indictment of Gosden's York record. Far from it.

It is an indictment of the price.

The market knows that Gosden runners at York are dangerous and his runners are often overbet.

His horses win plenty of races and comprehensively outperform the average runner, but punters have historically had to pay a premium to back them.

His A/E of 1.04 is much closer to market expectation.

York verdict

Respect the horse – question the price.

A Gosden runner may have an excellent chance without necessarily representing an excellent bet.

That distinction is fundamental to value betting.

Karl Burke – Good Record, But Usually Well Found

Karl Burke has had plenty of York runners:

197 runners
18 winners
9.14% strike rate
54.57 PRB
-16.08% Betfair SP ROI

The PRB is good and his winners are certainly numerous enough to command respect.

But unlike Balding, Haggas and Beckett, Burke hasn't rewarded blind support.

The market appears well aware of his York record.

York verdict

Positive trainer; not automatically a positive bet.

We need the price to be right.

The Big Warning Signs

The study also contains several extremely interesting negative records.

These aren't trainers we should automatically oppose – racing statistics should never be used that crudely – but the numbers suggest their runners have historically been overestimated by the York betting market.

Tim Easterby

The biggest sample belongs to Tim Easterby:

294 runners
7 winners
2.38% strike rate
48.14 PRB
-72.68% Betfair SP ROI

That is a striking set of statistics.

Nearly 300 runners gives this considerable credibility.

York is a local track for the Easterby operation and consequently plenty of runners make the journey. But historically, following them blindly would have been extremely expensive.

York verdict

Require strong evidence from the individual horse rather than treating York as a positive trainer angle.

Richard Fahey

Another major northern yard with a surprisingly ordinary record:

279 runners
14 winners
5.02% strike rate
50.50 PRB
-41.74% ROI

The PRB is almost exactly average.

That tells us Fahey's runners haven't actually performed disastrously.

The bigger issue is price.

They have simply failed to win often enough relative to market expectation.

York verdict

Potentially over-bet because of trainer reputation and geographical association with York.

David O'Meara

O'Meara's numbers tell a similar story:

214 runners
10 winners
4.67% strike rate
49.58 PRB
-47.00% Betfair SP ROI

Again, the PRB suggests roughly average overall performance.

But the win return has been poor.

York verdict

Another well-known Yorkshire trainer whose runners may attract more market support than their York results justify.

Charlie Johnston – A Particularly Poor Record

One of the strongest negative profiles belongs to Charlie Johnston.

From 82 runners:

2 winners
2.44% strike rate
40.52 PRB
-91.62% Betfair SP ROI

Unlike some of the other negative ROI trainers, the PRB doesn't offer much consolation.

A figure of 40.52 indicates that these runners have generally been beaten by considerably more rivals than they have defeated.

York verdict

On this three-year evidence, York has emphatically not been a positive course for the yard.

Any Johnston runner would need to make a particularly compelling case on our other ratings.

PRB Can Reveal Something the Win Figures Miss

There are also trainers whose statistics demonstrate why PRB is such a useful addition to traditional win percentages.

Jim Goldie, for example, has an excellent 55.11 PRB from 64 runners but only two winners and a -80.54% Betfair SP ROI.

Similarly, Ed Bethell records a very respectable 56.35 PRB, but only four winners from 63 runners and a -45.35% ROI.

These horses have frequently run well without winning.

That distinction could be important.

Rather than treating them simply as negative trainer angles, these could potentially be yards to investigate for:

• Place markets
• Each-way betting
• Back-to-lay opportunities
• Horses likely to outrun their finishing position or price without necessarily winning

That is something worth investigating separately.

Beware the Big-Price ROI Outlier

There is one other important lesson from the numbers.

Michael Easterby shows a remarkable +41.13% Betfair SP ROI, despite only four winners from 96 runners and a very weak 42.17 PRB.

That immediately raises a flag.

The average odds of his runners are extremely high and therefore one or two big-priced winners can transform an ROI calculation.

This is precisely why we shouldn't use ROI in isolation.

For our purposes, the strongest trainer angles are those where:

Strike Rate + PRB + ROI + A/E all point broadly in the same direction.

That is why Balding, Haggas, Beckett and Hannon are so compelling.

Our York Trainer Watchlist

Going into the Ebor Festival, these are the yards we will particularly be watching.

Strong Positive

Andrew Balding
20.0% SR | 60.25 PRB | +36.0% ROI

William Haggas
20.9% SR | 59.51 PRB | +32.3% ROI

Ralph Beckett
17.5% SR | 59.24 PRB | +54.9% ROI

Richard Hannon
16.9% SR | 62.46 PRB | +41.4% ROI

Positive

Ed Walker
12.1% SR | 58.48 PRB | +22.4% ROI

Kevin Ryan
7.1% SR | 48.76 PRB | +23.7% ROI

Excellent Trainers – But Watch the Price

John Gosden
20.0% SR | 61.30 PRB | -21.1% ROI

Karl Burke
9.1% SR | 54.57 PRB | -16.1% ROI

Historically Expensive to Follow at York

Richard Fahey – -41.7% ROI

David O'Meara – -47.0% ROI

Tim Easterby – -72.7% ROI

Charlie Johnston – -91.6% ROI

The Betting Lesson

Perhaps the most important point from the exercise is that trainer success and betting value are not the same thing.

John Gosden has an outstanding York record. His horses win races and his PRB is exceptional.

But everybody knows it.

Andrew Balding, William Haggas, Ralph Beckett and Richard Hannon have not only produced excellent results – their runners have, remarkably, still generated positive returns at Betfair SP.

That is far more interesting to us as punters.

At the other end of the spectrum, trainers such as Tim Easterby, Richard Fahey and David O'Meara may appear natural York trainers because they send large numbers of horses to the track and are strongly associated with northern racing.

But familiarity does not necessarily equal profitability.

As we work through the Ebor Festival races this week, trainer record will never replace our assessment of the individual horse.

It can, however, provide another valuable piece of evidence.

And when one of our top-rated horses is trained by Balding, Haggas, Beckett or Hannon, the last three years suggest we should pay particularly close attention.

The Out and Out Stayer