Racing Preview – 16/09/26

An interesting day. Three races make the shortlist, and in two of them our rating and the betting market are telling rather different stories — which is usually where the value hides, and occasionally where the trapdoor is.

15:30SandownListed · Class 1 · 1m · Good · 10 runners

Fortune Stakes

Trainor Stone & Tile Fortune Stakes (Listed)

Our figures put Nahraan on top, but you would not guess it from the betting. The money has come for Cerro Blanco in a way that suggests his supporters think the race is a formality, and that is worth pausing over before anyone reaches for a bet.

Nahraan climbed to a useful level quickly enough last season, Listed honours at Hamilton among the spoils. This campaign has been slower to catch fire, but he ran respectably when beaten a shade under three lengths into third of four behind Sallaal in a Group 3 over a mile and a quarter at Haydock last month, and to my eye Oisin Murphy was in no hurry with him through the final furlong. He drops back in trip today. There is a decent race in him this autumn. Whether it is this one is the question — and the market has answered it by pushing him out to 6.0 this morning, from 4.5 overnight.

Cerro Blanco is the opposite proposition: a horse bought entirely on improvement. The Wootton Bassett colt has won two of his three starts, all at Newmarket over seven furlongs, with a second in Listed company sandwiched between a maiden and a novice success. Charlie Appleby’s stable clearly hold him in some regard, and the step up to a mile ought to suit. He has been backed into 2.08 on the exchange.

Room Service is the highest-rated horse in the field and has an interesting profile. A six-furlong Listed winner in his Kevin Ryan days, he announced himself at his new yard by defying a big weight at 22-1 over seven furlongs at Gosforth Park in June, in first-time blinkers and a tongue tie. Jamie Osborne has been open about wanting to find out whether a mile is within his compass, which is a refreshingly honest way of saying the trip is a genuine unknown. The form claims are solid; the stamina is a leap of faith.

Centigrade is better than he has been able to show. He could not justify favouritism in a mile handicap at York’s Ebor meeting last month, though he got himself too far out of it that day, and it is worth remembering he has only five career starts to his name and is still finding his feet after a two-year injury absence. Ralph Beckett has had recent joy in this event.

Our ratings — Sandown 15:30

Nahraan heads the overall figure by eight tenths of a pound — nothing at all in a Listed race. But note where Cerro Blanco sits: top of the field on conditions, and the strongest yard and rider figures in the race. Our headline number has him third; the three columns beside it are quietly agreeing with the money.Verdict

Nahraan, 1 point each way at 6.0. The each-way is deliberate. At that price the place part returns the stake if he fills a frame, which is the sensible way to take on a horse the market has decided cannot be beaten. If Nahraan shortens back below 5.0 before the off, the each-way logic goes with it and this becomes a watching brief.

15:41YarmouthListed · Class 1 · 1m 2f · Good To Soft · 12 runners

John Musker Fillies’ Stakes

EBF Stallions John Musker Fillies’ & Mares’ Stakes (Listed) · Eastern Festival day two

Fairy Glen is the class act on paper and the highest-rated in the field on 112. A pair of Group 2 wins in Meydan this spring, the second of them the Dubai Gold Cup over two miles, then a perfectly respectable return to Europe when half a length fifth of nine in a blanket finish for the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier at Longchamp in May.

Two things give me pause. She has not been seen since May, so today’s fitness is a guess rather than a judgement. And she is dropping a very long way in trip — from a staying championship at two miles to a mile and a quarter here. The drop in grade is real and in her favour; the drop in distance is a different question entirely, and not one her recent form answers. She has been drifting this morning, which does not encourage me to find out at my own expense.

Sky Safari is the other one with obvious claims, six wins to her name on speed-favouring all-weather surfaces including a Lingfield Group 3 in February. She was left with too much to do when returned to turf in a Group 2 at Chester, and was far from disgraced back on the artificial at Newcastle after a bad stumble leaving the stalls. Turf again today.

Of the others, Seet is lightly raced and open to improvement, and Rhapsody was second at York behind Prizeland and drops in trip. Both have a case on form. One word of caution on Rhapsody: our conditions figure has her bottom of the twelve, which is about as firm a disagreement as that column produces.

Our ratings — Yarmouth 15:41

A close, flat set of figures — barely five pounds covers the first six, and no filly in the race is both top on ability and top on conditions. That is usually the shape of a race to leave alone.Verdict

No bet. The best horse in the race is having her fitness taken on trust over a trip six furlongs shorter than her biggest win, and the market is drifting away from her. Nothing else stands far enough clear to be worth the risk.

16:12YarmouthHandicap · Class 3 · 9.1f · Good To Soft · 13 runners

Goffs Two Million Series Handicap

The race of the day, and the strongest opinion on the card

Our rating makes Point Of Contact top, and he has a perfectly respectable case. He showed the benefit of a reappearance run when getting off the mark in handicaps over nine furlongs at York in June, and he did it with a good attitude. He did not have the chance the market suggested at Sandown next time, but there have been two sound-enough efforts since and he was snatched up close home at Salisbury last time. He is edging his way back towards the mark he won off.

But we are going against our own figure here, and it is worth saying so plainly. Enoch is the bet.

The Frankel colt looked a smart prospect on debut, winning a seven-furlong Newmarket maiden last September, travelling strongly and finding plenty when asked. He did nothing to change that impression at Lingfield on his reappearance three weeks ago over a mile, and this step up in trip should suit him better again. There should be a strong pace on here, which is what a horse ridden with patience wants, and he has been well backed this morning. This is a colt who has not yet been asked a serious question.

Our own numbers back the case even where the headline figure does not: Enoch has the strongest trainer and jockey figures in the race by a distance, and Point Of Contact carries the weakest rider figure of the thirteen. In a handicap decided by a pound and a half, that is not a detail.

Our ratings — Yarmouth 16:12

Point Of Contact leads by 1.4lb. Enoch gives that back and more on the yard and rider columns — 93 and 98 against 76 and 53. Where a rating is that tight, we will take the horse with the better hands on the reins and the room to improve.

Verdict - Enoch, 3 points win. The strongest opinion we hold today, and the one place on the card where we are happy to overrule our own top-rated horse.

The Staking Plan

Four points staked across the card. Prices quoted are Betfair exchange and were taken this morning; they will have moved by the time you read this, and the Nahraan bet is conditional on his holding up.

About the OOS rating

The figures in the tables are our own. OOS blends a horse’s ability, how well today’s conditions suit it, and the strength of its yard and rider into a single number, set on the official-rating scale of the race it runs in. Cond scores ground, trip, class, draw and likely pace shape from the horse’s own record under each. Trn and Jky are current form figures for the trainer and jockey. Every figure is read against the rest of that field, never across races.

These ratings are published as a work in progress

The usual caveat

This is opinion and analysis, not advice. Stake only what you can comfortably afford to lose, and never chase a losing day.

Published on the morning of racing. Form, going and market references correct at the time of writing.