There is no shortage of racing today, with competitive cards at Newbury, Ripon, Newmarket and Doncaster amongst the afternoon action. Jumps racing also returns today though we'll let the form bed in for a month or so before we get overly involved.

As is so often the case on a busy Saturday, however, plenty of racing doesn't necessarily mean plenty of betting opportunities. There are some fiercely competitive handicaps and we are happy to leave the majority of them alone.

We do have four horses of interest, though, and interestingly three of them are horses we have backed previously.

Sometimes the right approach isn't to abandon a horse simply because it didn't win for us last time. The important question is whether our original assessment was wrong – or whether circumstances prevented the horse from showing what it could do.

That theme runs strongly through today's selections.

2.35 Newbury – SCOVILLE

Tissue: 4.00
2 POINTS WIN

We backed Scoville in the Golden Mile at Goodwood last time and we're going back in.

Quite simply, we don't believe the bare form figures tell anything like the full story of his last two races.

After undergoing a breathing operation, Scoville returned to something much closer to his best when seventh of 28 in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot. He was ridden prominently and did comfortably best of the horses who became involved in forcing the pace.

That was a very encouraging performance in one of the most competitive mile handicaps of the season.

Then came Goodwood.

Drawn wide in the Golden Mile, Tom Marquand was clearly determined to overcome the draw and Scoville was sent forward very aggressively, eventually getting to the lead after around three furlongs.

For us, far too much petrol was burned getting there.

Having worked so hard through the early part of the race, it wasn't particularly surprising that Scoville had nothing left to give when the serious racing began. He was headed entering the final furlong and weakened rapidly through the closing stages.

We felt at the time that it was a poor tactical outcome rather than a poor performance from the horse.

The interesting thing is that the wider racing analysis reaches much the same conclusion. Timeform's assessment is that Scoville did too much too soon from his wide draw at Goodwood, while the Racing Post says his recent form figures disguise the fact that he is in much better heart than they suggest.

Now comes what could be the important move:

back from a mile to seven furlongs.

That looks ideal.

The Guardian has also highlighted Scoville today, specifically pointing to the seven-furlong trip as a positive after he travelled strongly for a long way in two major mile handicaps.

The pedigree certainly doesn't concern us. This 200,000gns purchase is a half-brother to the smart Soulcombe and useful Solomon, while his dam was a Group 1 winner herself.

He has plenty of natural ability and, perhaps crucially, today's race is nothing like the 28-runner Royal Hunt Cup or the Golden Mile around Goodwood.

There are just eight runners in this Class 2 handicap and Scoville runs from a mark of 96, with Tom Marquand retaining the ride for William Haggas. Newbury is currently good to firm, good in places.

We had originally suspected connections might wait for the Ebor meeting with him, so the fact that he reappears quickly here is interesting in itself.

We're prepared to forgive Goodwood.

In fact, we think today's conditions could be considerably more suitable.

SCOVILLE – 2 POINTS WIN
Tissue: 4.00

2.55 Ripon – WOODSTOCK

Tissue: 10.50
1 POINT EACH-WAY

A much bigger field awaits at Ripon, where Woodstock is our each-way play in the six-furlong Silver Cup.

This is a fiercely competitive 20-runner Class 4 handicap, which is precisely why we want a double-figure price before getting involved.

Woodstock has run pretty well on each of his last three starts without quite finishing his races as strongly as it appeared he might.

He is a strong, good-bodied gelding who travels extremely well through his races. He stays a mile, handles a variety of surfaces and going conditions, and the return to six furlongs today may actually be the key.

Last time he contested a stronger Class 3 event at Thirsk.

Again he travelled strongly, but after being carried to his right around two furlongs from home he was still firmly in contention entering the final furlong before failing to quicken as strongly as expected through the final 100 yards.

The result was respectable – but the way he travelled suggested there was perhaps more there than the final finishing position showed.

Today represents an important change.

Class 3 to Class 4.

And he drops another pound to a mark of 76.

There is also a particularly attractive piece of course form which shouldn't be overlooked. Woodstock finished a neck second over today's course and distance in this very race 12 months ago – from the same handicap mark. At The Races also identifies him as interesting returned to six furlongs.

That's significant.

This is the sort of horse whose record can tempt people into thinking he's exposed, but when a horse continues to travel into races as strongly as Woodstock has been doing, there is often another opportunity waiting when all the pieces fall into place.

Today's easier grade, six furlongs and a return to Ripon could provide exactly that opportunity.

We're not alone in seeing him as one of the potential value horses in the race either; talkSPORT's ITV racing preview also puts Woodstock forward each-way at a double-figure price.

In a 20-runner sprint we're certainly not pretending this is straightforward.

At the right price, however, he makes plenty of each-way appeal.

WOODSTOCK – 1 POINT EACH-WAY
Tissue: 10.50

3.10 Newbury – EXTREMELY ZAIN

Tissue: 5.60
2 POINTS WIN

This is probably the most fascinating selection of the afternoon.

We have backed Extremely Zain before and today William Haggas takes the significant step of pitching this progressive three-year-old into the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes.

We think he deserves his chance.

Extremely Zain began his career by winning his first three starts and has progressed very rapidly from promising novice to a horse capable of competing at a high level.

He also already has winning form over today's course and distance. His unbeaten record disappeared at Ascot last time, but we certainly didn't come away from that race disappointed.

He went into the International Handicap from a mark 8lb higher than when winning at York, with the handicapper having understandably reacted not simply to what he'd achieved but to the manner in which he'd achieved it.

Ascot represented a completely different test.

The pace wasn't particularly strong and Extremely Zain took far too long to settle. He raced keenly behind the leaders before challenging inside the final two furlongs, got upsides entering the final furlong and then encountered a little interference late on.

He eventually finished fourth of 16, beaten only around a length and a half.

For a horse having just the fourth race of his life, there was a great deal to like about it.

At The Races reaches a similarly positive conclusion, suggesting he may have finished second without the late interference and describing him as a smart prospect with more improvement to come.

Today asks another question because this is his first attempt in Pattern company.

But that progression doesn't frighten us.

He's a well-made colt, his pedigree contains plenty of quality and he remains very lightly raced. Most importantly, we don't believe we've yet found the ceiling of his ability.

There is also an excellent stable angle.

William Haggas has won the last two renewals of the Hungerford Stakes, while Haggas and Tom Marquand have combined to win three of the last five.

That certainly doesn't mean Extremely Zain wins because of a statistic, but it does suggest this is a race the yard knows exactly what sort of horse is required to win.

The opposition is serious. Never So Brave, Coppull, Symbol Of Honour and Witness Stand all command respect in a very good renewal. The current forecast has Extremely Zain amongst the leading contenders rather than dominating the market.

That's fine by us. We believe his best days remain ahead of him.

If he settles better than he did at Ascot, we think the transition from a high-class handicapper into a genuine Group performer can continue today.

EXTREMELY ZAIN – 2 POINTS WIN
Tissue: 5.60

3.37 Doncaster – NYMAN

Our final selection is Nyman in the seven-furlong Class 5 handicap at Doncaster.

This is another case where the recent form figures don't necessarily tell the whole story.

Nyman has gradually been working his way back to form and his latest run at Redcar seven days ago was much more encouraging than it might initially appear.

Held up towards the rear, he was still well off the pace approaching the final two furlongs and then had to negotiate his way through traffic.

Once finally able to get organised, he finished strongly to take third.

That is exactly the sort of run we like when a horse is subsequently dropping in grade.

Redcar was a Class 4.

Today is a Class 5 0-75 handicap over seven furlongs, and Nyman runs from 72 with Cian Horgan taking another 5lb off his back.

That effectively puts him in a very interesting position if last week's improvement was genuine.

He also produced an RPR of 94 at Redcar, considerably higher than today's official handicap mark, another indication that he could be dangerous if reproducing that effort in this easier company.

He hasn't won for a while and comes with risks, but horses dropping in grade after shaping considerably better than the result are exactly the type we want to identify before the market fully catches up.

The ease from Class 4 into Class 5 looks a major plus.

NYMAN – SELECTION
1 Point Each-Way - Tissue 10.0

Today's Bets

2.35 Newbury – SCOVILLE
2 Points Win – Tissue 4.00

2.55 Ripon – WOODSTOCK
1 Point Each-Way – Tissue 10.50

3.10 Newbury – EXTREMELY ZAIN
2 Points Win – Tissue 5.60

3.37 Doncaster – NYMAN
1 Point Each-Way - Tissue 10.0

There is a common thread running through today's bets.

Scoville is better than his finishing positions suggest. Woodstock has been travelling better than he has been finishing and now drops in grade and trip. Extremely Zain remains a horse of considerable potential despite losing his unbeaten record. And Nyman shaped like a horse coming back to himself just seven days ago and now finds himself in easier company.

The key, as always, is price.

We are not interested in simply finding winners; we're interested in backing horses when the available odds are bigger than our assessment of their true chance.