⚠️ WEATHER WARNING – CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE

Before we get into today's selections, keep a very close eye on the weather and the going.

At the latest update, Goodwood is Good to Firm, Sandown Good, and Windsor Good to Firm, Good in places, but light rain is around all three venues.

The key today is not necessarily what the ground is called this morning, but how much rain actually arrives and when. There is enough rain around to potentially alter conditions during the afternoon, so check the latest going before placing bets.

That is particularly important at Goodwood and Sandown, where a significant change in the ground can alter the complexion of a race considerably.

Don't blindly take early prices without considering the weather.

A Better Saturday's Racing

It has been a poor week from a punting perspective.

In truth, it has also been a very quiet week, dominated by low-quality racing and relatively few races in which we have really wanted to get heavily involved.

That changes today.

Last Saturday was all about big, competitive handicaps, and we managed to find some tasty-priced winners amongst them.

This Saturday has a very different feel.

The cards are much more top-loaded, with some excellent racing at Goodwood and Sandown, while Windsor provides another high-quality card later in the day.

There are fewer huge-field handicap puzzles to attack, but there are still several betting opportunities.

As always, though, price is everything.

2.00 Goodwood – FORTY YEARS ON

NO BET AT CURRENT PRICE

Our Tissue: 4.60
Current Price: Around 3.75

We went into the race looking to back Forty Years On, but unfortunately the market has found her.

We wanted 4.60 and she is currently solid at around 3.75, so unless something changes significantly, this is going to be a watching brief.

That is frustrating because there is plenty to like.

A £120,000 yearling, she is a strong, lengthy filly and a sister to three winners, including the useful Dance Diva, while her dam won between around 7½f and 9f.

She stays a mile, handles both good-to-firm and good-to-soft ground and is a strong traveller who is usually ridden off the pace.

Most importantly, she still looks progressive.

She improved rapidly through last season, completing a hat-trick at Ascot in September, and stepped forward again when winning a 15-runner handicap at Newbury over 7f in June.

There should be more improvement to come and she is well drawn.

Everything says she should run a big race.

But there is a difference between fancying a horse and backing one.

Verdict: NO BET unless we can somehow get close to 4.60.

2.15 Sandown – ALCARATH

1 POINT WIN

Our Tissue: 6.02
Current Price: Around 5.60

We like Alcarath here.

The €280,000 yearling is a strong gelding and a brother to useful juvenile winner Orne. There is plenty of speed in his pedigree, but his racing style suggests that trying him over further than 1¼ miles is certainly worth exploring.

Importantly given today's weather, rain won't inconvenience him.

He has already shown he acts on soft ground, so any deterioration in conditions would be much less of a concern for him than for some of his rivals.

He produced arguably his best handicap performance when finishing a close second of 14 over this course and distance in June and remains a relatively lightly raced four-year-old.

There should still be some upside in his handicap mark.

The other interesting angle is Oisin Murphy taking the ride for the first time.

Our tissue is 6.02 and he is currently trading at around 5.60, so we aren't quite getting what we want yet.

Verdict: 1 POINT WIN – ideally 6.0 or better.

2.35 Goodwood – TONY MONTANA

1 POINT WIN

Our Tissue: 5.60
Current Price: Around 6.00

Tony Montana looks solid in what is inevitably another competitive Goodwood handicap.

He has acquitted himself well in all three starts this season and produced another good performance when fourth of 17 here over 1¼ miles last time.

That run deserves marking up.

He was doing his best work late despite being ridden by a claimer and the performance suggested that another crack at this longer trip is well worth trying.

Today Clifford Lee takes over in the saddle, which is another positive.

Several of these arrive with questions to answer, whereas Tony Montana has been running consistently well without becoming obviously badly handicapped.

We priced him at 5.60 and he is currently available at around 6.00.

That's what we're looking for.

Verdict: 1 POINT WIN.

3.30 Sandown – ROCK MONTREAL

2 POINTS WIN

Our Tissue: 3.50
Current Price: Around 3.40

The dogs are barking.

There has been plenty of noise around Rock Montreal, and it isn't difficult to understand why.

This could be a very smart colt indeed.

A remarkable 1,000,000gns yearling, he is closely related to several good winners, most notably the smart San Donato, who won up to a mile and stayed 1¼ miles.

His debut performance at Yarmouth immediately marked him down as a horse to follow.

It wasn't simply that he won.

It was the ease with which he did it.

Roger Varian has described him as a lovely colt with a strong physique and a good mind following that debut victory.

He now makes a huge jump from maiden company into the Group 3 Solario Stakes, but sometimes the really good horses make that progression look straightforward.

This looks like one of them.

The market clearly agrees.

Our tissue is 3.50 and he is around 3.40, so there isn't a huge amount of juice in the price.

But he is one of our strongest opinions of the afternoon.

Verdict: 2 POINTS WIN.

4.05 Sandown – DESERT SHADOW

2 POINTS WIN

Our Tissue: 2.80
Current Price: Around 2.86

Another strong fancy.

Desert Shadow appears to have found his optimum conditions since the visor went on and connections dropped him back in trip.

He was particularly impressive over this course and distance 23 days ago, comfortably putting away a couple of three-year-olds under Oisin Murphy.

He looked like a horse who had considerably more in hand than the winning margin suggested.

The handicapper has reacted with a 9lb rise, but there is every possibility that won't be enough.

When a horse suddenly finds the combination of trip, tactics and headgear that unlocks him, it can take the handicapper two or three races to catch up.

Oisin Murphy remains aboard, and we think Desert Shadow has another big performance in him.

Our tissue is 2.80 and he is currently around 2.86.

Verdict: 2 POINTS WIN.

4.55 Goodwood – DREAM COMPOSER

2 POINTS WIN

Our Tissue: 6.00

We finish the afternoon with Dream Composer.

This is an interesting handicap because several of these horses seem to spend their lives racing against one another.

Many have enjoyed successful campaigns.

The problem is that successful campaigns eventually attract the attention of the handicapper.

Several look as though they have had plenty of racing and are now sitting on marks where the handicapper knows exactly where he is with them.

Dream Composer may still have a little more going for him.

He is a strong, workmanlike gelding whose optimum conditions are an easy 6f or a stiff 5f. He acts on Polytrack, good-to-firm and soft ground, which is another positive with today's uncertain weather.

He has already won twice for the current yard this season and showed an excellent attitude when scoring at Windsor in June.

His latest Windsor run was also better than the bare result.

Dream Composer raced prominently, moved up before halfway and took over more than two furlongs out. He was only narrowly headed entering the final furlong before weakening in the final 50 yards.

Crucially, he was being ridden by a very inexperienced apprentice who was maybe tiring herself late in the race.

Today we have Dougie Costello back in the saddle.

That makes a considerable difference.

Dream Composer is a battle-hardened sprinter who knows how to win, handles different ground conditions and arrives here on a mark from which he can still be competitive.

Our tissue is 6.00 and the market is currently pretty close to that figure.

Verdict: 2 POINTS WIN – 6.0 or bigger is the target.

Today's Betting Card

Final Thoughts

After a fairly miserable and uninspiring week, this is much more like it.

Good horses. Good races. Good tracks.

We have six horses we like, although Forty Years On looks highly unlikely to become a bet unless the market changes significantly.

The two that particularly interest us are Rock Montreal, who may prove to be a genuinely high-class colt, and Desert Shadow, who could still be ahead of the handicapper.

Dream Composer is the bigger-priced horse on the card who could give us a very nice finish to the afternoon.

But today comes with one major caveat:

WATCH THE WEATHER.

If the rain becomes heavier than expected, reassess the ground before getting involved.

Price first. Conditions second. Discipline always.

Good luck today — and let's get the week back on track.