The OutandOutStayer · Daily Racing Preview 23/09/26

Six races rated at Goodwood and Perth, both on good ground. We are staking five and a half points across four bets, and our best bet of the day is Tikka in the fillies’ final at 15:50.

Two of the four bets are on our top-rated horse: Plaid at Goodwood, the clearest top rated on the card, and Tamarind Bay in a cracking handicap chase at Perth. The other two go against our own figure. Tikka is rated third on a provisional figure from one run, and Treble Tee is last of five in the Listed race, a deliberately small bet at a big price. We set out the reasons in each race.

Both two-point bets are for the same yard and rider. James Fanshawe and Daniel Muscutt team up with Plaid in the 14:05 and Tikka in the 15:50.

Two non-runners in the races we rate: Quisana in the 15:15 and Isabella Of Aragon in the 15:50. Every figure below is calculated on the fields as they now stand. Neither withdrawal changed the top-rated horse in its race.

The card at a glance — six races

14:05 Goodwood 2pts win Classified Stakes Class 3 1m 2f Good 4 runners

Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Classified Stakes

The clearest top rated on the card, and the replay agrees with the figure

Plaid heads our figure on 97.6, 2.6lb clear of Nesthorn, and she tops the conditions column too at 63.4. Only four go to post and the handicapper has a single pound between all of them, so a margin of that size in a race this small is our figure giving a firm view.

We are with her for more than the number, though. Her last run, a fourth at York behind the progressive Silver Lake, was better than the bare result. She was held up, made her ground wide of the field and was not given a hard time once the winner had gone. That run had more in it than the result shows, and a three-year-old filly with that profile should improve again. She also gets the weight-for-age allowance, carrying 128lb against the older pair's 133.

Her two main rivals both had hard races last time. Nesthorn, second on 95.0, is consistent and settled better when dropped back in trip, but his conditions reading of 55.6 is the weakest of the front three. Runman has the best yard and rider figures in the race and is third on 94.4. He was found out in a strong three-year-old handicap at Doncaster and got worked up beforehand, which is not ideal on the way to Goodwood. Green Cape is well adrift after two free-going runs at Ascot.

Our ratings

Fourteen and a half pounds covers the four, but the real contest is the first three, who are inside 3.2lb. Runman is a tenth of a point behind Plaid on conditions and more than three pounds behind her on the overall figure; Plaid is the only horse top two on both.Verdict

Plaid, 2 points win. Win only. In a four-runner race she may be short, and our rule stands: no bets at odds-on.

14:40 Goodwood No bet Handicap Class 2 1m Good 8 runners

Heineken Handicap

2.4lb covers the first five, so this is one to watch

Jimmy Speaking tops our figure on 92.9 and is second on conditions at 63.6. He started the year with two wins and was caught only late at Yarmouth last time after making the running, and he runs off the same mark today. If he gets an easy lead he will take some catching.

His margin is 1.3lb, though, and Tribal Chief, Racingbreaks Ryder, Storm Star and Oliver Show are all within two and a half pounds of him. Tribal Chief is well treated on his spring form but has been losing ground at the start. Storm Star has dropped another 2lb and has the best yard and rider pairing of the principals. This is a very competitive handicap and we are happy to leave it alone.

Our ratings

Just under eight pounds covers the eight. Gun Carriage tops the conditions column at 68.8 but is last on the overall figure. He makes his British debut after six months off, so his rating is the least reliable in the field.Verdict

Jimmy Speaking — selection, no bet. A very competitive race.

15:15 Goodwood ½pt win Listed Class 1 1m 2f Good 5 runners

Virgin Bet Foundation Stakes

A small bet at a big price, placed against our own figure

Half a pound separates the top two. Naqeeb, last year's winner, tops our figure on 110.1, 0.5lb ahead of Boiling Point. The pair met over course and distance in May and Boiling Point just edged it. Naqeeb meets him on 3lb better terms today, and on that line he should come out on top. He ran poorly on soft ground in the Celebration Mile, and good ground should suit him better.

Respond will be well backed with Oisin Murphy riding. He tops our conditions column at 64.7, has improved since being allowed to lead, and was a close fourth at Listed level at Windsor despite pulling hard.

Our bet is Treble Tee, and he is last of five on our figure on 104.4, so this is a bet on the price, not on the rating. He progressed through handicaps and won at Newcastle in June. Apart from a below-par run in France last time, he has shown ability every time he has run. Today he steps up to ten furlongs for the first time, and his pedigree suggests the trip will suit: runners by his sire, Persian King, show an A/E of 3.03 between ten and twelve furlongs. Persian King is a young sire and that sample is small, so it counts as support for the bet, not proof. James Doyle rides for the Crisfords, and their figures of 90 and 89 are among the best in the race.

Our ratings

Five runners covered by 5.7lb, with the top two half a pound apart. Respond is top on conditions but fourth overall. Treble Tee is last on the figure, and that is the gap we are betting on: we think the longer trip will show him in a better light than his form so far. Quisana is a non-runner.Verdict

Treble Tee, ½ point win. A value bet at a big price, placed against our own figure because of the step up in trip.

15:50 Goodwood 2pts win Conditions Stakes Class 2 7f Good 15 runners 2yo fillies

British EBF £100,000 2YO Fillies’ Series Final

Our best bet of the day, rated third on a figure that is still provisional

Eabha is top rated on 88.7, 0.9lb clear, on the strength of her Group-race placings over this course and trip and in the May Hill. Her yard and rider figures are the weakest of the principals, which keeps her margin small. Coral Cove is second on 87.8 and well clear on conditions at 75.0, but she is drawn widest and this is a big step up in class.

Tikka is our best bet. She is third on 86.5, and because that figure comes from a single run we mark it provisional. In her case we think it undersells her. She was very impressive on debut at Kempton, quickening clear, the form of that race has worked out well since, and she clocked a good time figure. One run is not enough for a rating to show what a filly like that can do. Her yard figure of 91 is the best in the race, and she receives 6lb from Eabha and 4lb from Coral Cove.

The risk in the bet is her position. Tikka is drawn nine, and most of the pace looks to be drawn inside her, so Daniel Muscutt will need to get a good early position. We don't think the cutaway will be in use today, though that is not confirmed. If it isn't, it could get very tight against the rail. We are staking two points despite that, because we believe she is the best filly in the race.Our ratings — Goodwood

Twenty-one pounds covers the fifteen, but the first three are inside 2.2lb. Tikka, Lady Foxtrot and Light Fingered all carry provisional figures from a single run, and in a race of lightly raced two-year-olds those are the ratings most likely to be wrong in either direction. Isabella Of Aragon is a non-runner.Verdict

Tikka, 2 points win. Our best bet of the day.

15:57 Perth 1pt win Handicap Chase Class 2 3m Good 9 runners

Paul Ferguson’s Jumpers To Follow David Whitaker Handicap Chase

A cracking handicap chase, and a sign that the jumps season is nearly here

A proper three-mile handicap chase, and a real sign that the jumps season is almost here. Tamarind Bay is our top rated on 138.8, 2.0lb clear, and he leads the conditions column by almost ten points at 74.7. He has improved since switching to fences, with three chase wins, and he would probably have won over this course but for unseating late on. His easy Bangor win means his fitness is not in doubt.

The question is the 9lb he has to carry for that Bangor win. That is a lot of weight, but he won easily and is still improving, and we do not think it will stop him.

It is fantastic to see The Real Whacker here. A former Charlie Hall winner, at ten he races off a career-low mark, wears blinkers for the first time, and may well run a bold race from the front. He is last of nine on our figure under top weight, but this may be a case where the rating undersells the horse. He will not have the lead to himself. There are four front-runners in the race, including Breizh River and El Rio, so a battle for the lead looks likely. That should suit Tamarind Bay, who can take command after the turn in.

Our ratings

Nine runners covered by 9.1lb. Behind Tamarind Bay, three horses are inside 0.4lb, so the places are wide open. Etalon has the best yard and rider figures in the race, 98 apiece, but three miles is a big step up in trip for him.Verdict

Tamarind Bay, 1 point win. Top rated and top on conditions. We expect the contested pace to help him.

16:25 Goodwood No bet Handicap Class 3 1m 6f Good 9 runners Fillies

Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Fillies’ Handicap

Under five pounds covers nine, as competitive as anything on the card

Gloryous tops both columns, with 79.8 overall, 0.5lb clear, and 68.3 on conditions. She won at Kempton in August and was second at Newbury only five days ago, so she arrives in form, although this is a step up in grade on a quick turnaround.

Quebella and Personal Best are both within a pound. Hope Rising is eighth on our figure but has won four in a row, the kind of improving horse a form-based figure is slowest to catch up with. With the whole field inside 4.7lb, we are not betting.

Our ratings

4.7lb covers the nine, the narrowest spread of the day. Gloryous is the only horse top on both the overall figure and conditions. Quebella has the strongest yard of the front three but the weakest conditions reading of them, at 54.0.Verdict

Gloryous — selection, no bet.

The Staking Plan

All four are win bets, and none is to be taken at odds-on. Two follow our top rating and two go against it, with the reason given in each race. A selection is our opinion about a horse; a bet is our opinion about a price.

Selections without a stake

Goodwood 14:40  Jimmy Speaking Goodwood 16:25  Gloryous

Both are top rated, by 1.3lb and 0.5lb, in handicaps where five or more runners sit within two and a half pounds of the top. Margins that small do not justify a bet.

Today’s non-runners

Goodwood 15:15 Quisana; 15:50 Isabella Of Aragon

All figures above are calculated on the reduced fields.

About the OOS rating

The figures in the tables are our own. OOS blends a horse’s ability, how well today’s conditions suit it, and the strength of its yard and rider into a single number, set on the official-rating scale of the race it runs in. Cond scores ground, trip, class, draw and likely pace shape from the horse’s own record under each. Trn and Jky are current form figures for the trainer and jockey.

The strip above each table shows that race’s whole field, from its lowest OOS figure to its highest, with every runner marked. The green tick is the top rated, and gold marks a horse we have staked. Every figure is read against the rest of its own field, never across races: a 138 at Perth and an 88 at Goodwood are not comparable numbers.

The usual caveat

This is opinion and analysis, not advice. Stake only what you can comfortably afford to lose, and never chase a losing day.