Yesterday proved another productive day, with Venetian Lion and Kalpana both obliging, while we also managed to pick up a few each-way bits and pieces from the handicaps. Kalpana had to dig deep in the Yorkshire Oaks, but class told and she held on by a short head, while Venetian Lion got the job done at Newmarket.

Onto Friday and Day Three of the Ebor Festival.

Ground conditions are going to require a little care. Racing Post currently describes York as Good with showers around, while some other racecards have the surface edging towards Good to Soft. That makes the ability to handle some cut particularly important in several of today's races.

We have four bets today, headed by Rayevka in the Nunthorpe, while Mount Atlas, Silver Lake and Tiernan complete the portfolio.

1:50 York – Sky Bet Mile Handicap

A Race to Watch Rather Than Bet

What a puzzle to start the day.

There are several horses we like in isolation, but once draw, ground and a huge field are thrown into the equation it quickly becomes difficult to find a sufficiently strong edge.

Intense Vision was one of the biggest eye-catchers at Goodwood. Badly drawn, he made his challenge out towards the outside and flew home in a manner that suggested there is more to come.

Unfortunately, he has hardly been blessed by the draw again.

There is also a possible ground question. The progeny of Expert Eye have recorded only a 7.87% strike rate on Good to Soft or Soft ground, with an A/E of just 0.75. That doesn't mean Intense Vision cannot handle it, but in a race this competitive we don't need additional doubts.

He remains firmly in the notebook for another day.

Tissue: 13.8

Outback Heat

Another fascinating contender.

All four of his starts have been over a mile, winning his Newcastle maiden before taking an Ascot handicap.

He then produced another career-best in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot, finishing an excellent second of 30 and arguably deserving extra credit because his challenge developed away from much of the main action.

He is by Too Darn Hot, so we are much less concerned about some ease in the ground.

The problem again is the draw. In a race where so many small factors matter, he hasn't been handed an obvious advantage.

Tissue: 16.6

Bearish

Possibly the most interesting of the outsiders.

He is progressive, has Oisin Murphy aboard and, importantly, has obtained a favourable draw.

Bearish made a successful start to handicap company at Ayr in July, getting up late to defeat a horse who subsequently won next time out.

He has gone up 5 lb, but after only four career starts it would be surprising if we had already seen the ceiling of his ability.

There is also encouragement from the ground angle, with progeny of Kodi Bear generally comfortable when there is some cut.

Tissue: 18.6

Zennor Storm

He brings some of the strongest recent handicap form.

Having previously won a seven-furlong maiden and mile novice at Kempton, he returned to the upgrade after being gelded.

A good fourth over this course and distance was followed by an excellent effort at Glorious Goodwood, finishing just a length behind Exclusive Code in a 19-runner handicap.

He travelled from off the pace and finished strongly in first-time cheekpieces, which are retained today.

On our figures he is a major player.

Tissue: 8.3

And we haven't even mentioned Le Samourai, who sneaks in towards the bottom of the weights and has secured the inside stall.

Tissue: 15.1

That rather sums up the problem.

Five horses of serious interest, several conflicting positives and negatives, and 30 runners charging down the Knavesmire.

Sometimes the correct betting decision is to acknowledge that you don't have enough of an edge.

VERDICT: NO BET

Our tissues:
Intense Vision – 13.8
Outback Heat – 16.6
Bearish – 18.6
Zennor Storm – 8.3
Le Samourai – 15.1

2:25 York – Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup

MOUNT ATLAS – 1 POINT EACH WAY at 8.0+

This is a fascinating staying contest and Mount Atlas looks overpriced if we can secure 8.0 or bigger.

He is a smart, consistent performer who gained his first Pattern-race success when edging out Tabletalk in the Group 3 Silver Cup here at York over 1¾ miles in July.

The obvious question is today's step up to two miles.

We're prepared to take a positive view.

This does not necessarily look like a race that will develop into a brutal, relentless two-mile stamina test. If they don't go a searching gallop, Mount Atlas's combination of travelling speed and stamina could become a significant asset.

There are two obvious dangers.

Amiloc (tissue 5.0)

A talented gelding whose three-year-old campaign included victory at Royal Ascot at Group 2 level, followed by creditable performances in both the Irish St Leger and Breeders' Cup Turf.

Things haven't gone quite as smoothly this season, but his sixth behind Giavellotto in the Hardwicke, beaten less than five lengths, suggests the engine remains.

We learnt nothing about his stamina in the Goodwood Cup because he unseated at the start.

Two miles should be within his compass and he is effective with some ease in the ground.

Caballo De Mar ( tissue 4.84)

A tough, strong stayer who is arguably the biggest threat.

He stays beyond two miles, races prominently and has proved versatile regarding underfoot conditions.

His previous attempt over an extreme staying trip saw him travel as a serious threat for a long way before stopping very quickly late on, with heat stress subsequently reported.

The drop back in distance looks sensible.

It is a good race, but at the prices Mount Atlas gets the vote.

BET: MOUNT ATLAS – 1 POINT EACH WAY

Minimum price: 8.0

3:00 York – Gimcrack Stakes

Two Good Colts – But Too Many Ground Questions

We've finally got the cheekpieces on Adaay Of Scarlett, a horse we have plenty of respect for.

He began his career with victories at Newmarket and Ascot and has subsequently found only one rival too good in Listed and Group company.

His latest run produced another excellent effort when finishing a length second to Man's Best Friend in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood.

He is remarkably consistent.

The question is the ground.

He has never raced on anything softer than good, although there is at least some encouragement from the sire statistics: Mehmas progeny have around a 10% strike rate on Good to Soft or Soft ground with an A/E of 1.05.

Tissue: 5.5

Arapaho Gold

The unbeaten Arapaho Gold is potentially very good.

He was impressive when winning both his maiden and novice races at Thirsk before comfortably proving himself capable of making the jump into Listed company at Newbury.

He has looked slightly raw and can still be something of a handful, but there is plenty of ability there and further improvement is entirely possible.

Once again, however, there is a ground question.

He has yet to race on a softer surface.

The wider racing press is understandably keen on him – several previews have put him forward strongly for the Gimcrack – but at the respective prices we don't see enough margin to guess how either colt will react if conditions deteriorate.

Arapaho Gold tissue: 4.6

There isn't enough between them on our figures.

VERDICT: NO BET

3:35 York – The Nunthorpe Stakes

RAYEVKA – 1 POINT EACH WAY

Now we get to the big one.

There seems to be enormous confidence surrounding Wesley Ward's American challenger Bacio.

And we understand why.

We have him top rated on his Royal Ascot performance, where he landed a sizeable gamble and absolutely bolted in.

There is no doubting his raw ability, and let's be frank: the current crop of established British sprinters hardly looks vintage.

Bacio could simply be better than them.

He is officially rated 114 and arrives at York with a record of four wins from his last five starts.

But this is where price matters.

Bacio tissue: 5.4

At the time of writing, he is much shorter than our tissue having been well backed.

Therefore, however much we respect him, he isn't a bet for us at the current price.

Instead, we'll turn to France.

Rayevka

Rayevka looks the value.

The French filly won impressively at Longchamp and then proved that performance was no fluke whatsoever when running a tremendous race at Royal Ascot.

She travelled beautifully under Mickael Barzalona, had to negotiate traffic before producing her challenge and looked for a moment as though Barzalona had timed things perfectly.

She hit the front inside the final furlong only to be caught in the dying strides.

That was top-class sprint form.

She stays six furlongs, which can be an important attribute in a strongly-run Nunthorpe, and there should be no question about her ability to cope if this becomes more of a test than the bare five furlongs suggests.

Interestingly, she has also attracted support elsewhere in the racing press, with The Times putting her forward as a major Nunthorpe contender.

Our tissue makes her 6.6.

The market is currently offering around 6.8.

That's not an enormous overlay, but it is enough in a Group 1 where we believe she has a genuine winning chance.

BET: RAYEVKA – 1 POINT EACH WAY

Tissue: 6.6

Available at time of writing: around 6.8

Bacio may turn out to be exceptional.

At the prices, though, Rayevka is our play.

4:10 York – Heritage Handicap

Four Closely Matched – And That's the Problem

Another huge York handicap and our ratings are screaming one thing at us:

Leave it alone.

We have four horses separated by barely a pound:

• French Duke – tissue 10.2
• Plage De Havre – tissue 11.6
• Wave Rider – tissue 13.1
• Tycoon – tissue 16.3

Tycoon deserves particular credit after running an excellent second here yesterday, but this is exactly the type of York handicap where several horses can suddenly rediscover their best form.

There are simply too many imponderables.

Interestingly, the market itself demonstrates how open the contest is, with several runners clustered towards the head of the betting rather than one obvious standout.

We don't need to solve every race.

VERDICT: NO BET

We are also leaving the 4:45 Convivial Maiden alone. There may well be some smart horses emerge from it, but with lightly raced two-year-olds it is not a race where our methodology gives us enough confidence to get involved.

5:20 York – Sky Bet EBF Fillies' Handicap

SILVER LAKE – 2 POINTS WIN (tissue 3.5)

This is one of our stronger bets of the afternoon.

Silver Lake looks a filly firmly on the upgrade.

She opened her handicap account at Salisbury and was then well backed at Goodwood despite having been nudged up 2 lb.

She didn't just win. She destroyed them.

She travelled strongly just behind the leader, moved to the front on the bridle more than two furlongs from home and, despite wandering slightly when asked to go about her business, powered clear inside the final furlong.

She won by three lengths and gave the distinct impression there was plenty left in reserve.

Sporting Life confirms the progressive profile: she has won her last two starts, at Salisbury and Goodwood, and Saffie Osborne is back aboard today.

There is more to come.

The Danger – Dream Camp (tissue is 11.0)

Andrew Balding's Dream Camp is another with a progressive profile and is respected.

But Silver Lake may simply be ahead of the handicapper.

She does have a considerably higher mark to overcome this time, but that is exactly what progressive three-year-old fillies can do at this stage of the season.

The market has recognised her chance – she heads current betting for the 17-runner contest – and she has also been put forward by several racing previews as the filly to beat.

We agree.

BET: SILVER LAKE – 2 POINTS WIN ( tissue is 3.5)

6:15 Hamilton – Lanark Silver Bell

TIERNAN – 2 POINTS WIN ( tissue 6.8)

We finish the day's betting away from York.

And we are quite strong on Tiernan.

Our ratings have him clear top, with Yabher three pounds behind.

Tiernan was well supported at Hamilton last time and duly delivered.

That followed a very good second when he and Steel Raven pulled a long way clear of the remainder. Steel Raven subsequently did nothing to damage the form when running respectably in a very deep handicap at Goodwood.

Back at Hamilton, Tiernan raced prominently before taking over more than two furlongs from home and forging clear.

He looked like a horse going places.

Today's trip should suit and, crucially, a mark of 85 may still underestimate him.

Racing Post confirms that Tiernan runs from 85, with Andrew Mullen riding for Iain Jardine, and he returns to a track where he has already won.

Tissue: 6.8

Our figures give him a clear enough ratings advantage to make him one of the stronger plays on today's card.

BET: TIERNAN – 2 POINTS WIN

Tissue: 6.8

Today's Bets

2:25 York – MOUNT ATLAS
1 POINT EACH WAY – 8.0 or bigger

3:35 York – RAYEVKA
1 POINT EACH WAY – around 6.8
Tissue: 6.6

5:20 York – SILVER LAKE
2 POINTS WIN

Tissue 3.5

6:15 Hamilton – TIERNAN
2 POINTS WIN
Tissue: 6.8

There are some tremendous races at York today, but also some fiendishly difficult handicaps.

That is where discipline matters.

There is no prize for having a bet in every race. We are happy to watch Intense Vision, Outback Heat, Bearish, Zennor Storm and several others today and wait until circumstances give us a clearer edge.

Four bets. Six points staked.

Good luck.