There is some outstanding racing on offer today, headed by a fascinating afternoon at York, and this is very much a card where price matters.

We have several horses high on our ratings that we would be perfectly happy to back at the right odds, but the early market is considerably shorter than our tissue in a couple of races. As always, we are not interested in backing a horse simply because we think it will win — the price has to represent value.

Later in the afternoon we head north to Carlisle, where an old friend provides our strongest betting interest of the day.

RACE ONE – 1.50 YORK

Toca Madera & The Man

NO BET

This is an exceptionally tight handicap and we have spent plenty of time looking at two horses in particular — Toca Madera and The Man.

Unfortunately, the early prices look considerably shorter than our assessment.

Toca Madera – Tissue 11.6

Toca Madera ran twice during the Goodwood Festival and performed well on both occasions, but his effort in the Stewards' Cup was particularly eye-catching.

With anything resembling a clear passage, we believe he would have gone extremely close to winning. He travelled strongly behind the leaders but found himself short of room over two furlongs out, was then struck by a rival's whip while still waiting for a run, and only found daylight inside the final furlong.

Once in the clear, he absolutely rattled home on the stands' side.

He has form at York and today's 5½ furlongs combined with what should be a strong pace looks close to ideal for him.

At the right price he would be very interesting. Unfortunately, we don't expect to get anywhere near our tissue of 11.6.

The Man – Tissue 11.1

The other one on our radar is The Man, who has dropped to a potentially dangerous handicap mark.

He won here over five furlongs on his handicap debut last spring before finishing a close second in this very race.

His three runs at Meydan earlier this year were disappointing, but there were more encouraging signs at Goodwood 22 days ago. Switched to cheekpieces, he wasn't ideally positioned and shaped better than the bare result.

A return to York could easily spark a revival.

Again, though, the price is everything.

Verdict

Two interesting runners, but this is an extremely competitive handicap and neither is currently available at anything close to the price we require.

NO BET

RACE TWO – GENTLE HURRICANE

1 Point Each Way

Tissue: 6.5

This is a race where we are prepared to take on the favourite.

I wasn't completely convinced by the form of the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood. Three horses, including Haffner, effectively finished in a line and I thought Haffner looked a little one-paced when the pressure was applied.

At a short price, he looks opposable.

The horse we want on our side is Gentle Hurricane.

A €105,000 yearling by Invincible Spirit, he has an attractive pedigree. He is a brother to Happy Hadeda and a half-brother to three winners, including Light Blush and Al Saariyah.

There is also plenty of stamina further down the pedigree, which makes today's step up in trip particularly interesting.

More importantly, Gentle Hurricane won his only previous start and did so in the manner of a potentially useful colt.

He raced prominently, took the lead over a furlong from home and, despite needing to be driven in the closing stages, was well on top at the finish.

This is obviously a considerably tougher assignment on just his second appearance, but that is reflected in the price.

The longer distance promises to suit and his trainer's record in this race is another positive — having won it twice in the last four years, including last season with Gwan, who was also making only his second career start.

There is a degree of speculation involved, but Gentle Hurricane could have considerably more improvement in him than some of his better-exposed opponents.

Selection

GENTLE HURRICANE – 1 POINT EACH WAY

Tissue: 6.5

RACE THREE – MALTESE CROSS

Strong Fancy – But Only at the Right Price

Tissue: 3.72

We went into this race hoping that the market might give us a backable price about Maltese Cross.

Unfortunately, that doesn't look likely.

Maltese Cross is a progressive son of Sea The Stars who has continued to improve as the season has developed.

He showed both ability and a tremendous attitude when battling his way to victory in the Lingfield Derby Trial over just short of a mile and a half.

He then produced an excellent performance when finishing second to Christmas Day in the Derby at Epsom, despite encountering soft ground.

His progression continued in France when he won the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp, once again displaying the tenacity that has become one of his greatest assets.

He remains open to further improvement.

The presence of Antigua, seemingly in the field to ensure a genuine gallop for the O'Brien runners, should ensure this becomes a proper test. That should suit Maltese Cross perfectly.

We rate him a strong selection.

But a strong selection at the wrong price is still a bad bet.

Verdict

MALTESE CROSS – NO BET BELOW 3.72

Our tissue is 3.72, and at the moment it appears unlikely that the market will offer us that price.

RACE FOUR – A RACE TO SAVOUR

Ombudsman v Constitution River v Item

What a race this promises to be.

We have Constitution River and Item taking on Timeform's joint highest-rated horse in the world, Ombudsman.

On our ratings, Ombudsman is the horse to beat.

Ombudsman – Tissue 2.85

Ombudsman is a genuine top-class performer and won this race last year.

He arrives here three from three in 2026, highlighted by a devastating four-length victory in the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot over a mile and a quarter on good to firm ground.

A repeat of that performance would make him extremely difficult to beat.

He has to concede 7 lb to the three-year-olds, and at this level that is significant. At the available price, we can admire him without necessarily wanting to back him.

Constitution River – Tissue 3.24

There appears to be enormous confidence behind Constitution River from the O'Brien camp.

He stretched his winning sequence to five when landing the Eclipse and everything about him suggests he is ready to test himself against the very best older horses.

This imposing son of Wootton Bassett may not have reached his ceiling yet either.

There could be considerably more to come.

Item – Tissue 7.85

The value horse for us is Item.

He was an impressive winner of the Dante on his seasonal return before disappointing when only ninth in the Derby at Epsom, where the soft ground may simply have counted against him.

He quickly resumed his progression when returning to York 25 days ago, beating Pride of Arras by 2¾ lengths in the Sky Bet York Stakes over today's course and distance on good to firm ground.

That was much more like it.

There should be further improvement to come and we particularly like the likely shape of today's race.

With pacemakers representing both the O'Brien and Gosden yards, this should be run at a proper gallop.

Item stays a mile and a half, so stamina is certainly not an issue, and a strongly-run mile and a quarter could play perfectly to his strengths.

There is another important factor:

He has already won twice at York.

Against two outstanding rivals he will need another career-best, but his price compensates us for that risk.

Provided all nine runners stand their ground and we retain the three each-way places, he looks the value play.

Selection

ITEM – 1 POINT EACH WAY

Tissue: 7.85

BET ONLY IF MORE THAN 8 RUNNERS REMAIN

RACE FIVE – KIRCHER

NO BET

This has the appearance of a bit of a lottery.

Kircher comes out top on our ratings, but this isn't a race where we have sufficient confidence to get involved.

There are days when the best betting decision you can make is simply to keep your money in your pocket.

Verdict

NO BET

OFF TO CARLISLE…

RACE SIX – MISUNDERSTOOD

Our Biggest Bet of the Day

2 Points Each Way – Ground Dependent

We leave York behind and head north to Carlisle for what is our strongest betting interest of the afternoon.

Our old friend Misunderstood runs again and we are delighted to see Paul Hanagan taking the ride.

His latest run at Musselburgh was enormously frustrating.

Daniel Tudhope held him up towards the rear, showed little urgency at a crucial stage and then attempted to work his way through horses while still travelling on the bridle.

From our perspective, Misunderstood had far more to give.

We came away convinced that the result significantly understated the merit of his performance and that, with a more positive ride, he could have won.

Hopefully we see something very different today.

Carlisle is a stiff, galloping track and we want to see Hanagan make proper use of Misunderstood rather than giving him an impossible amount of ground to recover.

If he is ridden positively and gets into the race early enough, we think he has an outstanding chance.

There is, however, one important condition attached to the bet.

We don't want him on genuinely soft ground.

Good to Soft is acceptable.

Soft is not.

Selection

MISUNDERSTOOD – 2 POINTS EACH WAY ( tiissue is 6.91)

BET PROVIDED THE GROUND IS NO SOFTER THAN GOOD TO SOFT

SOFT GROUND = NO BET

RACE SEVEN – SCHRODINGER'S CAT

1 Point Each Way

We finish the day with another horse we like at an each-way price — Schrodinger's Cat.

He doubled his career tally at Redcar over five furlongs in June before improving again when narrowly denied by Naana's Shadow over today's course and distance later that month.

He met the same rival again at Goodwood 20 days ago and finished fifth of 18, but the bare result doesn't tell the whole story.

Schrodinger's Cat was brought widest of all when making his challenge and was never really seen to best advantage.

Now we get the rematch.

And this time there is a significant difference.

Schrodinger's Cat meets Naana's Shadow on 9 lb better terms.

That is a substantial swing.

His previous York performance shows the track suits him, his recent form is strong and we believe the revised weights give him a massive chance of reversing the form with his old rival.

He looks an ideal each-way play to finish the afternoon.

Selection

SCHRODINGER'S CAT – 1 POINT EACH WAY ( Tissue is 7.9)

We have no opinion in the last race at York.

Today's Betting Card

Gentle Hurricane – 1 Point Each Way
Tissue: 6.5

Item – 1 Point Each Way
Tissue: 7.85
Only if more than eight runners remain.

Misunderstood – 2 Points Each Way

Tissue 6.91 ( Only if the ground is Good to Soft or quicker. Soft = No Bet.)

Schrodinger's Cat – 1 Point Each Way

Tissue is 7.9

Price-Dependent / No Bet

Toca Madera – Tissue 11.6 – No Bet at current prices
The Man – Tissue 11.1 – No Bet at current prices
Maltese Cross – Tissue 3.72 – No Bet unless 3.72 or bigger
Ombudsman – Tissue 2.85 – Too short for us
Kircher – Top rated, but No Bet

Final Thoughts

This is exactly the sort of afternoon where discipline becomes important.

There are some horses we strongly fancy — particularly Maltese Cross — but being right about the horse and right about the bet are two different things. If the market doesn't give us our price, we walk away.

At York, Gentle Hurricane appeals as an improving colt who may be capable of taking a sizeable step forward, while Item gives us a value route into one of the races of the season.

Schrodinger's Cat has an excellent opportunity to turn the tables on an old rival under much more favourable terms.

But our strongest interest comes away from York.

If the ground remains suitable, Misunderstood is our biggest bet of the day.

Paul Hanagan will surely give him the right level of support from the saddle.