Friday Racing – Four Selections on a Highly Competitive Day
There is plenty of racing around Britain today, but quantity certainly doesn't mean opportunity. A lot of the handicaps look extremely competitive and this is not a day where we want to force the issue simply for the sake of having selections.
That said, four horses have made it through our filters, headed by a filly at Epsom who we think could still be considerably better than her current mark.
2.48 Epsom – WISE AND WONDERFUL
Tissue Price: 2.59
2 POINTS WIN
Our strongest selection of the day is Wise And Wonderful, who drops in grade after catching the eye in no uncertain terms at Glorious Goodwood.
She is a nicely bred filly, being a half-sister to 6f winner Ingleton and 1½m winner Gold Cup Day. Her dam won over 12.3f and is closely related to the top-class Fame And Glory, so there is plenty of stamina further back in the pedigree.
More importantly, Wise And Wonderful has already shown that she handles Epsom, having won over today's course and distance before heading to Goodwood.
Very little went right there.
Poorly drawn, she dwelt at the start and immediately found herself towards the rear. She was then hampered over two furlongs out and still had plenty to do entering the final furlong before again being denied a clear run.
Despite all of that, she was finishing strongly enough to leave the distinct impression that the bare finishing position told us very little about her performance.
That wasn't just our interpretation of the race. Subsequent analysis of the Goodwood meeting also highlighted Wise And Wonderful as one of the horses who met significant trouble in running.
She returns to Epsom today from a mark of 74, drops into a 0-75 nursery and has David Probert aboard for Andrew Balding.
We think she remains a filly of considerable potential and, back in calmer waters, she is one we want to keep firmly on the right side of.
WISE AND WONDERFUL – 2 POINTS WIN
Tissue: 2.59
5.48 Epsom – ICE CUBE
Tissue Price: 4.52
1 POINT WIN
We return to Epsom later in the afternoon for Ice Cube, who looks capable of confirming the improvement he showed when winning over this course and distance last time.
He had been hinting that a race was coming his way and was certainly not missed by the market on that occasion, returning a BSP of just 2.36.
He didn't settle perfectly, which is nothing unusual for this gelding, but travelled in midfield before beginning to make his move two furlongs out. Once asked to quicken he did so nicely, taking the lead inside the final 100 yards and ultimately looking to have a little in hand.
The handicapper has raised him just 3lb to 62, which looks perfectly reasonable.
He also has something else in his favour today. As a three-year-old he is taking on a number of older and considerably more exposed rivals, while he remains relatively lightly raced and open to more progress.
The current racecard confirms him as the bottom weight at 9st 4lb, with Charles Bishop again riding for Richard Spencer. We think he can follow up at a decent price.
We don't think his improvement has necessarily finished yet.
ICE CUBE – 1 POINT WIN
Tissue: 4.52
6.27 Newmarket – RISING FORCE
Tissue Price: 3.50
1 POINT WIN
Next comes Rising Force in the one-mile handicap on Newmarket's July Course.
This five-year-old is often ridden off the pace and has plenty of experience, but his latest run over this same course and distance suggested that a handicap mark in the low-to-mid 70s is not beyond him after all.
Held up in touch, he had to be switched to make his challenge just over a furlong from home. Once in the clear he made good headway, challenged inside the final 100 yards and was beaten only narrowly.
It was arguably as good a performance as he has produced and he competes today from an unchanged mark of 74.
He handles fast ground, stays the mile well and has Marco Ghiani aboard for John Butler. The likely danger is The Sweet Escape, but Rising Force's proven effectiveness under today's conditions makes him an obvious contender.
RISING FORCE – 1 POINT WIN
Tissue: 3.50
7.18 Thirsk – DERRYGARRAN LAD
Tissue Price: 10.00
1 POINT WIN
Our final selection is the most interesting from a price perspective.
Derrygarran Lad is still very lightly raced and makes his handicap debut this evening for Julie Camacho.
He is by a useful French family and the pedigree suggests that a mile may eventually prove his optimum trip, but seven furlongs should be perfectly adequate provided they go a reasonable gallop.
His latest effort at Redcar is worth another look.
Returning from 154 days off the track, Derrygarran Lad disputed the lead before going on three furlongs from home. He was headed inside the final furlong but kept on well, eventually finishing just three-quarters of a length behind Indefensible.
Indefensible reopposes today.
We think there are good reasons why Derrygarran Lad can reverse that form. That was only his third start, it was his first run for five months and there should be considerably more improvement available from him than from many of today's rivals.
This is also his first handicap, and Racing TV's assessment similarly identifies him as a horse who could improve for the switch into handicap company.
Then we come to perhaps the most interesting angle of all.
First-Time Cheekpieces
Julie Camacho reaches for cheekpieces for the first time today.
Our database shows an excellent record for the yard when applying first-time cheekpieces: +23.87 points at BSP, representing approximately 45% ROI.
Those statistics are sufficiently strong that we don't want to ignore the signal.
Derrygarran Lad is still learning his trade, he should improve for his latest run and he now encounters Indefensible on different terms in a handicap.
At our tissue price of 10.0, he's the sort of horse we're prepared to take a chance on.
DERRYGARRAN LAD – 1.5 POINTS EACH WAY ( if the 8 runners remain)
Tissue: 10.00
Today's Selections
2.48 Epsom – WISE AND WONDERFUL
Tissue 2.59 – 2 Points Win
5.48 Epsom – ICE CUBE
Tissue 4.52 – 1 Point Win
6.27 Newmarket – RISING FORCE
Tissue 3.50 – 1 Point Win
7.18 Thirsk – DERRYGARRAN LAD
Tissue 10.00 – 1.5 Point EW ( if 8 runners)
Total Staked: 7 Points
A competitive day's racing and certainly not one for firing bullets everywhere. Wise And Wonderful is the horse we have the strongest opinion about, while Derrygarran Lad provides the more speculative value play later in the evening.
As ever, price matters. Our tissue is there for a reason, and there is little merit in chasing a horse once the value has disappeared.
As a final note - I will pass on a word for Tuscan Hills in the 7.37 Newmarket - strongly fancied (we'll leave this with you and it won't count as an OutandOutstayer selection).
