Racing Preview - 24/09/26

Five races rated at Newmarket and Pontefract, both on good ground. We are staking two and a half points across three bets: Mezzo Forte in the Group 3 at 15:00, Arabian Force in the Listed race at 15:35, and Hollywell Stream at Pontefract.

This is a day of very tight races. In four of the five, less than a pound and a half separates our top two, so where the figures cannot split them we lean on the horse most likely to improve and on how we expect the race to be run.

None of the three bets is on our top-rated horse. Gregory is our clear top rated in the Rose Bowl, but at around 1.77 we would rather watch him than back him, and our half-point goes on Arabian Force at a price. We set out the reasons in each race.

One non-runner in the races we rate: Cilician in the 15:00. Every figure below is calculated on the fields as they now stand. The withdrawal did not change the top-rated horse.

The card at a glance — five races

13:50 Newmarket No bet Handicap Class 2 6f Good 10 runners Fillies

British Stallion Studs EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap

Too tight to call on the figures, so we side with the one most likely to improve

Lady Roxby is our top rated on 88.8, but only 0.4lb clear. She was second in this race a year ago from a 2lb higher mark and has been second in each of her last two starts, at Kempton and Yarmouth. She runs off the same mark as at Yarmouth, and Rossa Ryan keeps the ride. She must have a good chance.

Woohoo is second on 88.4 and tops the conditions column at 67.5. She won at Musselburgh in April and then finished second six times over the summer. Her sixth at York last time came over seven furlongs, which is at the limit of her stamina, and she was still in the firing line until late. Back at six furlongs, she should run her race again.

Our selection, though, is Bear On The Run, fourth on our figure at 87.1. She has had very few races and won at the Curragh last month on her return from a year off, beating more experienced handicappers. The runner-up has won since, which strengthens the form. Trainer Daniel James Murphy brings her over from Ireland, she is well drawn, and if the Irish form holds up she has a big chance. Our figure is built on what a horse has already shown, and on an unexposed filly like her it is the figure most likely to be wrong.

Our ratings

Eight of the ten are covered by 4.4lb. Woohoo is second overall and top on conditions. Bear On The Run sits fourth on a figure that includes very little racing, and the market already has her favourite.Verdict

Bear On The Run — selection, no bet. Too tight to call, but we expect her to improve past the more exposed fillies.

14:25 Newmarket No bet Nursery Class 3 5f Good 11 runners 2yo

Federation Of Bloodstock Nursery Handicap

3.3lb covers nine of the eleven, so this comes down to who improves most on the day

Minzelle and Lazurite are first and second on our figure, on 86.4 and 85.7. That is not a clear margin, because nine of the eleven are covered by 3.3lb. Black Velvet Boy is also one for the shortlist.

Lazurite won her novice at Lingfield last month in a canter after three months off. She made the running and was never threatened, and the extra furlong was no problem. She drops back to five furlongs for her first nursery and still has plenty of potential. She got worked up before her run at Goodwood, so watch her in the preliminaries. William Buick’s jockey figure of 98 is the best in the race.

Minzelle is another who should improve now she is running in nurseries. She was out of her depth in a Listed race at Deauville, and her maiden win at Catterick is the better guide. Trainer Karl Burke has a 12% ROI with his runners at Newmarket, and she has a good conditions score of 69.1.

Black Velvet Boy has been progressive and consistent, winning twice. He stepped up again when second at Thirsk to This Moment, who has since completed a hat-trick at Chester.

Our ratings

Eleven runners covered by 7.3lb, and nine of them within 3.3lb. Not My Type tops the conditions column at 76.1 but is only joint fifth overall. Lazurite has the second-lowest conditions score in the race, at 44.6.Verdict

Lazurite — selection, no bet. Too tight to call. We are happy to watch and enjoy the race.

15:00 Newmarket 1pt win Group 3 Class 1 7f Good 8 runners 2yo

Tattersalls Stakes (Somerville Tattersall Stakes)

Just 1.5lb separates our first three, and we side with the one taken to improve most

This is one of the tightest races on the card on our figure. Varzi is top on 93.3, Notable Dream is second on 92.0, and Mezzo Forte is third on 91.8, only 1.5lb off the top. Mezzo Forte also leads the conditions column at 71.7, and his trainer and jockey figures, 98 and 97, are the best in the race.

Mezzo Forte runs for William Haggas and Ryan Moore. He won his York maiden over seven furlongs readily and was eased down near the finish, in what looked a decent race. The runner-up, Bayraktar, has since won at Beverley, beating the odds-on favourite Arthurian. This is a step up in grade, but he has had only two runs and should improve again.

Varzi is the most experienced of the principals. He was beaten on debut at York by a horse who later finished fourth in the Coventry, then won a small novice at Pontefract. His best run came last time, when fifth in a Listed race at Doncaster. Great Balls O’Fire is another with potential. He was well backed for his debut on this course and won despite looking green. He will be popular again, but his figure is built on one run.

Our ratings

The eight are covered by 4.8lb, and the first four by just 1.6lb. Two of the principals are very lightly raced, so there is more guesswork in these figures than in an older-horse race. Cilician is a non-runner.Verdict

Mezzo Forte, 1 point win. Taken to improve and take the rise in class in his stride.

15:35 Newmarket ½pt win Listed Class 1 2m Good 10 runners

Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes

The ratings side with Gregory; the price sides with Arabian Force

Gregory is our top rated on 103.6, 2.6lb clear. He has had his problems, but he put them behind him when he won a Listed race at York in June after 16 months off, and he has been given plenty of time to recover since. He is class above most of these and is likely to win.

The problem is the price. He is trading around 1.77, which leaves no value in a two-mile race for a horse with his history. We are happy to watch him win.

If Gregory does not run to his best, Arabian Force is the one to benefit. He is second on our figure on 101.0 and second on conditions at 65.0. He has been placed three times at Listed and Group 3 level since his career-best third in the Great Voltigeur last summer. The Irish St Leger was too ambitious on his first run after being gelded, in first-time cheekpieces. He drops in class today and tries two miles for the first time, and there could be more to come. At around 8.2, he is the better betting proposition.

Our ratings

Ten runners covered by 17.3lb. The top two are 2.6lb apart and a clear 4lb ahead of the rest. Goblet Of Fire tops the conditions column at 65.5, just ahead of Arabian Force.Verdict

Arabian Force, ½ point win. Gregory is the ratings selection, but at the prices Arabian Force is much the better bet.

15:52 Pontefract 1pt win Handicap Class 3 1m 2f Good 10 runners

Simon Scrope Dalby Screw-Driver Handicap

0.1lb between the top two, and the race shape decides it

Be Patient is our top rated on 91.0, just 0.1lb clear, and he also tops the conditions column at 64.2. He won on his handicap debut at Doncaster in July with plenty in hand and has run well twice since. When third at Newmarket last time, he looked as if a stronger gallop would have suited. We cannot see much pace in this race, so it could be a similar story today.

Hollywell Stream is second on 90.9 and second on conditions. She improved to win a small handicap at Newmarket in August at the fifth attempt, then was second at Haydock last time to another improving three-year-old. She is still going the right way. She is drawn widest of the ten, which is the main concern, so Kevin Stott will need to find a position early.

Wahdan is third on 89.1. He has not yet matched the form he showed when winning in France, and he has since moved from Joseph O’Brien to Tim Easterby. Last time he was never put into the race but made steady late progress under hands and heels, which was encouraging. Jake Dickson rides today, but he has drifted in the betting all morning, which suggests today may not be the day.

Our ratings

Ten runners covered by 6.4lb, and the top two by 0.1lb. Wahdan is third overall despite the lowest conditions score in the race, at 45.5. Noble Horizon is likely to make the running.Verdict

Hollywell Stream, 1 point win. She looks solid and can take this in her stride. We hope Kevin Stott can find a position behind the front-runner Noble Horizon and take it up inside the final furlong.

The Staking Plan

All three are win bets, and none is to be taken at odds-on. Hollywell Stream is second on our figure by a tenth of a pound, Mezzo Forte is third by 1.5lb, and Arabian Force is second to a horse we think is too short. A selection is our opinion about a horse; a bet is our opinion about a price.

Selections without a stake

Newmarket 13:50  Bear On The Run Newmarket 14:25  Lazurite

Both races are too tight to call. In the 13:50 eight fillies are covered by 4.4lb, and in the 14:25 nine juveniles are covered by 3.3lb. Margins that small do not justify a bet.

All figures above are calculated on the reduced fields.

About the OOS rating

The figures in the tables are our own. OOS blends a horse’s ability, how well today’s conditions suit it, and the strength of its yard and rider into a single number, set on the official-rating scale of the race it runs in. Cond scores ground, trip, class, draw and likely pace shape from the horse’s own record under each. Trn and Jky are current form figures for the trainer and jockey.

The strip above each table shows that race’s whole field, from its lowest OOS figure to its highest, with every runner marked. The green tick is the top rated, and gold marks a horse we have staked. Every figure is read against the rest of its own field, never across races: a 103 in the Rose Bowl and an 86 in the nursery are not comparable numbers.

The usual caveat

This is opinion and analysis, not advice. Stake only what you can comfortably afford to lose, and never chase a losing day.