Racing Preview – Saturday 26 September 2026

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Racing Preview – Saturday 26 September 2026
The OutandOutStayer · Daily Preview

Racing Preview

16 Races rated
8 Bets
13½ Points staked

Cambridgeshire day at Newmarket, with the Cheveley Park, the Middle Park and the Royal Lodge on the same card. We are staking 13½ points across 8 bets, led by three points each on Sun Goddess in the Cheveley Park and Gavriel in the Cambridgeshire.

This is one of the best juvenile cards of the year. In the Cheveley Park, Sun Goddess, Senorita Bonita and Libertango have all beaten each other at some point this season. The Middle Park brings together two unbeaten colts, a Norfolk winner and a Gimcrack favourite. Then comes the Cambridgeshire, 27 runners over nine furlongs.

Our figures and our bets do not always agree, and today shows it. Sun Goddess and Inner City Blues are clear top rated in their Group 1s, and we back both. In the Royal Lodge, though, we side with William Buick’s choice, First Law, who is third on our figures. In the Cambridgeshire the top ten are covered by under 2lb, so the bet on Gavriel rests on what he may still improve, not what our figures show so far.

Prices quoted are Betfair back prices at 6am UK time, beside our ARA fair price. Early markets are thin and prices will move, so check the price before you bet.

Going and weather check

Course Official going Weather today (Met Office) Likely change
Newmarket Good (good to firm in places) Sunny, dry, 17–20°C, almost no wind None. If anything it will get a little quicker through the afternoon.
Haydock Soft Light showers, most likely around midday; 16–17°C None expected. The showers will keep it soft, and it will not dry out.
Ripon Good Sunny intervals, dry, up to 19°C None.
Market Rasen Good Sunny, dry, around 20°C None.

No rain is forecast at three of the four tracks, and only light showers at Haydock, which is already soft. We expect the ground to stay as declared everywhere. That suits the fast-ground types at Newmarket, such as Libertango and Orthodox. At Haydock it keeps conditions right for Angel Gabriel and Trilby.

Three non-runners in the races we rate: Gallivanted (Haydock 17:10), Pathein (Newmarket 15:40) and Superposition (Newmarket 16:50). Every figure below is calculated on the fields as they now stand.

The card at a glance — 16 races

Time Course Selection 6am Fair Stake
13:22 Newmarket Fire Thunder 6.00 6.15 1pt win
13:35 Haydock Eternal Force 5.20 7.55 no bet
13:55 Newmarket First Law 4.00 4.63 1pt win
14:10 Haydock Trilby 5.40 8.64 no bet
14:16 Ripon Zarakova 4.60 4.64 no bet
14:27 Newmarket Sun Goddess 2.50 2.36 3pt win
14:49 Ripon Tiva 6.80 9.67 no bet
15:00 Newmarket Inner City Blues 2.52 2.51 2pt win
15:15 Haydock Angel Gabriel 7.00 8.13 no bet
15:28 Ripon Eye Of Dubai 5.30 6.97 no bet
15:40 Newmarket Gavriel 6.20 5.60 3pt win
Hard Endeavor 30 26 ½pt win
15:50 Market Rasen Sure Touch 4.00 3.46 1pt win
16:50 Newmarket The Fingal Raven 8.60 7.96 no bet
17:10 Haydock Mick Collins 5.60 6.02 2pt win
17:30 Market Rasen Indian River 6.60 7.72 no bet
17:45 Ripon Zimmerman 3.30 3.62 no bet
13:22 Newmarket 1pt win
Nursery handicap Class 2 7f Good 11 runners 2yo fillies

British Stallion Studs EBF ‘Jersey Lily’ Fillies’ Nursery

Bottom weight Fire Thunder tops the figures in an open nursery
Our ratings — Newmarket 13:22
Horse OOS Cond Trn Jky
Fire Thunder 81.3 57.3 73 66
Kiah 79.6 62.9 62 60
Tansy Lane 79.5 60.3 86 68
Al Samsama 79.0 58.3 65 93
Next Of Kin 78.4 52.8 96 73
Sierra Belle 78.3 57.7 90 76
On the ratings

Fire Thunder is our top rated on 81.3, 1.7lb clear of Kiah, with Tansy Lane and Al Samsama close behind. The whole field of eleven is covered by under 8lb, so this is not a race where the figures separate one filly from the rest.

Polyxena is first on conditions, but only ninth overall. Fire Thunder is a middling seventh on conditions; her edge comes from her ability figure at the bottom of the weights.

Form and comment

Fire Thunder finished second on each of her first three starts before winning a weak race at Lingfield in July. The step up to seven furlongs on the July Course last month brought her best run yet. She finished fast and only just failed, and the filly who finished third has won since. Both sets of notes see her as well handicapped and she has Silvestre De Sousa up.

Kiah is still a maiden after four runs. Her two best efforts both came at seven furlongs on the July Course, and she ran poorly over a mile on the all-weather last time. The return to seven furlongs is the obvious reason for hope on her nursery debut.

Tansy Lane won a modest Epsom novice over seven furlongs a month ago. She is lightly raced and can still improve, but she beat very little that day and this is a much stronger race.

Al Samsama won first time out at Newbury and followed up with a good second under a penalty on heavy ground at Goodwood. She has only had two runs and should have more to come, but she carries top weight.

Verdict

Fire Thunder — 1pt win at 6.2 or bigger. She looks well weighted and the trip suits. She was 6.0 at 6am UK, just under our minimum, so wait for the price.

13:35 Haydock No bet
Handicap Class 2 1m Soft 10 runners

William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap

Five runners covered by 2.2lb, so we are happy to watch this one
Our ratings — Haydock 13:35
Horse OOS Cond Trn Jky
Looka 99.8 45.0 65 69
Eternal Force 99.1 62.8 99 95
Arctic Thunder 97.9 57.5 86 76
Desperate Dan 97.9 58.5 63 60
Cerulean Bay 97.6 55.6 69 88
Centigrade 96.5 59.1 85 82
On the ratings

Looka heads our figures on 99.8, just 0.7lb ahead of Eternal Force, with Arctic Thunder and Desperate Dan joint third. The top five are covered by 2.2lb.

Eternal Force stands out in the other columns. He is first on conditions (62.8) and has the strongest trainer and jockey figures in the race, from William Haggas and Cieren Fallon.

Form and comment

Looka is back in form. He made the running to win a mile handicap at Salisbury on good to soft ground 23 days ago and is only 3lb higher. One view is that a rail position helped him there, and he steps up in grade here.

Eternal Force won his last three races last season, finishing with a win over course and distance on good to soft. He has not won since, but he was beaten a nose off this mark at Hamilton in June and did not run badly at York. Cheekpieces replace blinkers for the first time. On his best form he is well treated.

Arctic Thunder won twice in a row over the summer, including over course and distance last month. He was well beaten at Ascot since, but he raced away from where the race was run. A strong gallop may not suit him.

Desperate Dan won two of his last three starts last autumn, one of them on heavy ground. He returns from three months off and can pull hard, so fitness is a question.

Verdict

Eternal Force — selection, no bet. He is well treated if the cheekpieces work, but this is a very competitive handicap.

13:55 Newmarket 1pt win
Group 2 Class 1 1m Good 7 runners 2yo colts & geldings

Tattersalls Online Royal Lodge Stakes

William Buick has chosen First Law over Quest For Stars, and we are following him
Our ratings — Newmarket 13:55
Horse OOS Cond Trn Jky
Quest For Stars 104.9 71.9 100 90
Haffner 104.5 66.5 86 90
First Law 101.4 64.0 100 98
Rocket Boy 96.5 55.1 73 80
Burning Up 94.6 72.2 83 80
Quicken Away 92.9 64.6 84 86
On the ratings

Quest For Stars is our top rated on 104.9, 0.4lb ahead of Haffner. First Law is third on 101.4, so our bet goes against our own figures.

Burning Up is first on conditions (72.2) but fifth overall. The top three are covered by 3.5lb, with a gap of nearly 5lb to Rocket Boy in fourth.

Form and comment

Quest For Stars won his first three races, the last of them a Listed race at Salisbury where he held off Rocket Boy. He then ran third to a better horse in a Group 1 at Leopardstown over nine furlongs after missing the break. The two sets of notes read that run differently. One sees a sign of limits, the other another step forward.

Haffner has the best form in the race. He was second in the Vintage at Goodwood and then won the Acomb at York. He ran badly in the National Stakes at the Curragh on yielding ground, and this is his first try at a mile.

First Law cost a million guineas as a yearling. He was green but still won his Sandown maiden, then made all to beat Rocket Boy in a Listed race at Haydock on soft ground. Both sets of notes expect more improvement, and the better ground today should help.

Rocket Boy has been beaten three-quarters of a length by both Godolphin colts. He will need to improve to reverse that form.

From the stables
“They are two horses who I don’t think will look out of place in this race and I would be sitting on the fence regarding who would come out on top.”Charlie Appleby
“We think the ground was too soft for him. We know he’s a bit better than that.”Aidan O’Brien, on Haffner
“The ground will suit him better here than Haydock as I think he is definitely a fast ground horse.”Marco Botti, on Rocket Boy
Verdict

First Law — 1pt win. Charlie Appleby says he cannot choose between his two, but William Buick has chosen First Law and we take the hint.

14:10 Haydock No bet
Handicap Class 2 5f Soft 12 runners

William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap

A course specialist against last year’s winner in a very competitive sprint
Our ratings — Haydock 14:10
Horse OOS Cond Trn Jky
Elara May 92.9 67.3 71 77
Trilby 91.6 61.4 88 68
Ancient State 91.1 62.1 55 96
All Ways Glamorous 90.8 57.3 85 74
King Of Light 90.1 58.7 62 87
Rhythm N Hooves 89.1 48.6 70 84
On the ratings

Elara May is our top rated on 92.9, 1.3lb ahead of Trilby. Ancient State and All Ways Glamorous are next, and last year’s winner King Of Light is fifth on 90.1. The first five are covered by 2.8lb.

Elara May is also second on conditions. Jel Pepper is well down the list, held back by a very heavy defeat in his recent form. We would not read too much into that one figure.

Form and comment

Elara May won four times over five furlongs as a two-year-old. She has been running well again recently, including a close third over course and distance on soft ground three weeks ago, a neck behind Trilby. She runs off the same mark.

Trilby has been revived by cheekpieces this year and has won three times, including over course and distance on soft ground. Last week he was sixth of 23 in the Ayr Silver Cup and second in his group. He has finished in the first three on eight of his ten visits to Haydock.

Ancient State has won four times this season, most recently at Doncaster 13 days ago. He is 5lb higher, but he keeps improving.

All Ways Glamorous won twice in the summer and was second to King Of Light in this race last year. He did not handle soft ground at Goodwood last month.

King Of Light won this race last year, then won at Windsor in June. He ran well to be fifth of 21 in the Portland recently and is 1lb lower. He is the danger.

Verdict

Trilby — selection, no bet. His record here is outstanding, but this is too competitive to bet in. King Of Light is the big danger as he tries to win this for a second year.

14:16 Ripon No bet
Nursery handicap Class 4 1m Good 6 runners

Lloyd Landrover Ripon Nursery

Four of the six have a live chance, and Zarakova may still improve
Our ratings — Ripon 14:16
Horse OOS Cond Trn Jky
Aphra Behn 77.8 63.0 90 98
Zarakova 75.8 63.1 90 81
Palace Legacy 75.6 55.7 90 91
Forest Berry 72.9 73.1 100 89
Cash Cove 70.5 52.4 78 92
Statten Island 69.3 55.6 78 75
On the ratings

Aphra Behn is our top rated on 77.8, 2.0lb clear of Zarakova, with Palace Legacy close up in third. Forest Berry is fourth, but she is first on conditions and has the best trainer figure in the race for Sir Mark Prescott.

Form and comment

Aphra Behn has been placed in all four starts and should be suited by the step up to a mile on her nursery debut. Her opening mark looks fair.

Zarakova cost 190,000 guineas and won a Newmarket maiden over a mile in August. She met trouble when fifth of six on her nursery debut at Doncaster and is 2lb lower here. She has had only a few runs and may improve again.

Palace Legacy improved when second in a Leicester novice with more positive tactics. He needs more again stepped up to a mile.

Forest Berry has improved since the hood was fitted, winning twice in August. She then ran her best race when fourth at Kempton, despite going for home too soon.

Verdict

Zarakova — selection, no bet. A really competitive nursery and not one to get involved in. We only just prefer Zarakova, who may have more improvement to come.

14:27 Newmarket 3pt win
Group 1 Class 1 6f Good (good to firm in places) 6 runners 2yo fillies

Tattersalls Sceptre Sessions Cheveley Park Stakes

A clash of the season’s best juvenile fillies, and Sun Goddess is clear on our figures
Our ratings — Newmarket 14:27
Horse OOS Cond Trn Jky
Sun Goddess 121.7 71.1 95 94
Libertango 116.4 74.3 84 90
Senorita Bonita 115.5 79.0 86 89
Moonrise 109.5 74.9 88 79
Alwaysanangel 107.3 59.4 82 96
Snowing 95.4 61.5 95 77
On the ratings

Sun Goddess is our top rated on 121.7, 5.3lb clear of Libertango (116.4), with Senorita Bonita a further 0.9lb back. Moonrise is fourth on 109.5. That is the clearest margin in any of today’s Group races.

Senorita Bonita is first on conditions (79.0), with Moonrise and Libertango next. Sun Goddess is only fourth of six on conditions. Her lead comes from her ability figure, which is her own record at the highest level, rather than anything about today’s trip or ground. Her trainer and jockey figures are the strongest in the race.

Form and comment

These fillies have mostly met each other already, and the form lines cross over.

Sun Goddess has won five of her seven races. After Libertango beat her by a length in the Albany at Royal Ascot, she won the Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh. She then dropped in grade to win a valuable sales race at York despite being badly hampered. Most recently she won the Moyglare Stud Stakes over seven furlongs by more than six lengths. She is clearly a better filly now than she was at Ascot. The one concern is her workload: this is her fourth big race in seven weeks.

Libertango has won three of her four races, all over six furlongs. She won the Albany ahead of Sun Goddess, then ran second to Senorita Bonita in the Duchess of Cambridge on the July Course, and bounced back to win the Lowther at York. She has her ideal fast ground today.

Senorita Bonita is the only other Group 1 winner in the field. She beat Libertango by just under a length in the Duchess of Cambridge, then came from off a strong pace to win the Prix Morny at Deauville by four lengths in August. She has had the most rest of the leading three.

Moonrise has improved with every run and won Group 3s at Ascot and Kempton. This is a big step up in class and back on turf.

Alwaysanangel was close up in the Duchess of Cambridge and has since won a Listed race at Cork. She has more to find.

From the stables
“She seems to be fine. She appears to have come out of her last race in the Moyglare very well. She has just progressed from race to race so far.”Aidan O’Brien, on Sun Goddess
“She’s a filly who takes plenty of work and she’s rock-hard fit now. Her pedigree and her action suggests she’ll be better on faster ground.”George Boughey, on Libertango
“We’re really pleased with Senorita Bonita coming into the Cheveley Park – she’s trained super well since the Prix Morny in August.”Ed Crisford, on Senorita Bonita

The market and our tissue. At 6am UK, Sun Goddess was 2.5 against an ARA fair price of 2.36, so she is fairly priced. Senorita Bonita, at 3.05, is shorter than our fair price of 4.04. The one our tissue marks as overpriced is Libertango, at 6.2 against 4.83, on ground her trainer says will suit her.

The case against. Sun Goddess drops back from seven furlongs to six on fast ground, after four big races in seven weeks. Senorita Bonita is the fresher filly and was strong at the finish in the Morny. If Sun Goddess is going to be beaten, that is how it will happen. We think she is good enough to overcome it, and she has shown she handles a battle, beating trouble in running at York.

History. Ballydoyle has won this race more times than any other stable over the past decade. Aidan O’Brien also runs Snowing.

Verdict

Sun Goddess — 3pts win. She is tough and has had a busy season, but we are firmly in her camp. She is clear on our figures and has improved with every big race. Ballydoyle dominates this race and we think she can win it again.

14:49 Ripon No bet
Handicap Class 4 5f Good 15 runners

Napoleons Casino And Restaurant Leeds Handicap

Fourteen runners covered by 3.5lb, too tight to bet in
Our ratings — Ripon 14:49
Horse OOS Cond Trn Jky
Tiva 78.3 61.2 86 75
Hiya Maite 78.1 57.4 59 62
Intervention 76.7 52.7 79 43
Kinetic Force 76.3 52.8 80 92
Mighty Magnus 76.0 62.9 60 74
Emerald Harmony 75.9 50.2 51 68
On the ratings

Tiva is our top rated on 78.3, only 0.2lb ahead of Hiya Maite. Fourteen of the fifteen runners are covered by 3.5lb. Tiva is also second on conditions.

Form and comment

Tiva is at the top of her game, with two wins from her last three starts. The latest came at Doncaster 13 days ago. She has won over course and distance, is 3lb higher, and keeps her 5lb claimer.

Hiya Maite is a veteran who has not won since 2024. He ran well to finish third at Doncaster after 12 weeks off and is only 1lb higher.

Intervention ran better with the hood refitted at Beverley, where he was unlucky over seven furlongs. He is well handicapped, but the drop to five furlongs may be too sharp.

Kinetic Force looked as though he needed the run at Doncaster after four months off. He should come on for it.

Verdict

Tiva — selection, no bet. She is in the best form, but this is a tight contest and not a betting race.

15:00 Newmarket 2pt win
Group 1 Class 1 6f Good (good to firm in places) 7 runners 2yo colts

Tattersalls Middle Park Stakes

Inner City Blues has the best figure; the only question is the pace
Our ratings — Newmarket 15:00
Horse OOS Cond Trn Jky
Inner City Blues 113.7 75.2 100 97
Orthodox 109.5 68.9 85 84
Confucius 106.2 59.6 94 86
Push The Boat Out 106.0 62.6 80 81
Hell Of A Spin 102.4 67.0 73 71
Marco Polo 95.9 39.9 94 97
On the ratings

Inner City Blues is our top rated on 113.7, 4.2lb clear of Orthodox. Confucius and Push The Boat Out are close together in third and fourth.

Inner City Blues is also first on conditions (75.2) and has the strongest trainer and jockey figures, from Charlie Appleby and William Buick. Marco Polo is sixth on our figures and last on conditions. Most of his ability is still to be shown.

Form and comment

Inner City Blues cost €900,000 at the breeze-ups and has won both his starts, at York and then in the July Stakes. He beat the Coventry runner-up easily that day. He has been off for 79 days, but by design, and there should be more to come.

Orthodox won the Norfolk at Royal Ascot impressively. He was only sixth in the Prix Morny, but his trainer blames the soft ground, and conditions will suit him today.

Push The Boat Out is unbeaten in two, including a win over Marco Polo on his debut. He then beat the Coventry winner in a Group 3 at the Curragh.

Marco Polo ran badly as favourite for the Gimcrack on softer ground, then won easily at Cork. He should improve on better ground today.

From the stables
“He’s done nothing wrong, he’s two from two and we purposely gave him a break after the July Stakes… he has maintained it and is hard fit.”Charlie Appleby, on Inner City Blues
“He was not happy on the softer ground… I’m very pleased that he’s continued building physically and mentally.”Clive Cox, on Orthodox
“We’ve always thought a lot of Marco Polo, it was why we ran him in the Gimcrack as a maiden.”Aidan O’Brien
Verdict

Inner City Blues — 2pts win. Our only worry is the lack of pace. We hope Marco Polo takes them along, and we expect a much better run from him today. If there is no pace, we want Buick to be as positive as he was on Talk Of New York and Fortitudine yesterday. If he is, we expect Inner City Blues to win this well.

15:15 Haydock No bet
Handicap Class 3 6f Soft 14 runners

Forever Our Mike Handicap

Our top rated has the ground he wants
Our ratings — Haydock 15:15
Horse OOS Cond Trn Jky
Angel Gabriel 90.3 64.2 80 82
Art Lover 88.8 59.8 97 96
Blue Prince 86.8 52.6 55 59
Rousing Encore 86.7 54.4 63 46
Dandy Magic 86.6 60.6 57 87
Proof 85.9 45.4 63 68
On the ratings

Angel Gabriel is our top rated on 90.3, 1.5lb clear of Art Lover. Cape Ashizuri and Storm Force are first and second on conditions but twelfth and tenth overall.

Form and comment

Angel Gabriel ran a good race first time out on heavy ground at Doncaster last year. He found ground too quick in his early handicaps, but back on soft ground at Windsor four weeks ago he made all and was never in danger. A 4lb rise should not stop him with the ground in his favour.

Art Lover has run well in all four starts this year and wears cheekpieces for the first time. He has never raced on ground this soft. His yard won this race last year.

Blue Prince is in the form of his life and was unlucky at Chester last week. He drops back to six furlongs, where his stamina will help on this ground.

Rousing Encore was second in the Ayr Bronze Cup, first home on his side of the track. He is 3lb higher and has never run at Haydock.

Verdict

Angel Gabriel — tentative selection, no bet. Our top rated should love the ground, but this is a very competitive handicap.

15:28 Ripon No bet
Handicap Class 2 6f Good 12 runners

Ripon Cathedral City Of The Dales Handicap

Eye Of Dubai goes for a third win in this race, but our figures are not yet convinced
Our ratings — Ripon 15:28
Horse OOS Cond Trn Jky
Yes I'm Mali 93.0 62.1 89 72
Indian Run 91.0 49.5 68 76
Kind Touch 90.4 61.3 66 51
Dark Cloud Rising 89.2 54.9 89 77
U Sure Do 89.0 57.1 60 62
Trefor 88.6 53.8 85 91
…
Eye Of Dubai (9th) 87.2 52.5 79 93
On the ratings

Yes I’m Mali is our top rated on 93.0, 2.0lb ahead of Indian Run, with Kind Touch and Dark Cloud Rising next. Eye Of Dubai, who won for us last week, is joint ninth on 87.2.

That low figure has a clear reason. Our ratings average several recent runs, so one big win after a poor spell only partly counts. The Bronze Cup win suggests he is better than his figure today.

Form and comment

Yes I’m Mali won over course and distance earlier this month. He was eleventh at Newbury last week off a career-high mark.

Indian Run ended a long losing run at Thirsk in July and has been placed twice since.

Kind Touch is the least exposed runner and was second to Yes I’m Mali over course and distance. He is 3lb higher.

Dark Cloud Rising won over course and distance in June, but his form has been up and down since.

Eye Of Dubai has won the last two runnings of this race. Last week he won the Ayr Bronze Cup in first-time blinkers, which he keeps on. A 5lb rise puts him back on the mark he won this off last year, and he is a big threat.

From the stables
“He really comes to himself at this time of year.”Connections, on Eye Of Dubai after Ayr
Verdict

Eye Of Dubai — selection, no bet. He won for us last week, but most of these are exposed handicappers and plenty could win.

15:40 Newmarket 3pt + ½pt win
Heritage handicap Class 2 1m1f Good (good to firm in places) 27 runners

bet365 Cambridgeshire

Two bets in the big handicap, led by the unexposed Gavriel
Our ratings — Newmarket 15:40
Horse OOS Cond Trn Jky
Wild Thoughts 97.8 60.6 25 48
Zennor Storm 97.7 60.5 84 33
Gavriel 97.6 52.8 86 36
Principality 97.4 56.9 1 14
Crest Of Fire 97.2 68.8 30 41
Harmonics 97.2 62.6 86 25
…
Hard Endeavor (11th) 95.2 65.1 53 15
On the ratings

Wild Thoughts is our top rated on 97.8, only fractionally ahead of Zennor Storm and Gavriel, who is third on 97.6. The top ten are covered by 1.9lb.

In a 27-runner heritage handicap, figures like these do not pick one out. They tell you the race is wide open, which is how the market sees it too. The trainer and jockey figures are unusually low for this race and tell us little. Hard Endeavor is eleventh on 95.2, only 2.6lb behind the leader.

Form and comment

Wild Thoughts won his first four handicaps in the spring. After a close third at Doncaster he won again at Ayr on soft ground last Saturday, and he carries a 4lb penalty.

Zennor Storm was second of 19 at Goodwood and then third at Ascot three weeks ago. The extra furlong may suit him.

Gavriel is a Frankel colt who has had very few runs. He won a handicap over a mile and a quarter at Ascot this month, beating a horse who won at Newbury last weekend. A 4lb penalty should not stop him, and 3-year-olds from the Gosden yard have a strong record in this race.

Principality has won twice this year and was unlucky when second at Salisbury last time. He is 2lb well in.

Hard Endeavor has run only a few times. His best run was a close second to Indalo in the Coral Challenge at Sandown in July. He was fifth at Ascot after two months off and that run should have put him right for this.

From the stables
“He is relatively lightly-raced but won very well at Ascot and Robert Havlin was delighted with him… these races are incredibly hard to win.”Tom Goff, on Gavriel
“He is a well-handicapped horse and it is all systems go.”Jack Channon, on Crest Of Fire
“I think he would be the perfect sort for this race.”Brian Meehan, on Bourbon Blues
Verdict

Gavriel — 3pts win. Hard Endeavor — ½pt win. Gavriel looks to have plenty more improvement to come. Hard Endeavor has had few runs, and his Coral Challenge second gives us hope he can run well at a big price.

15:50 Market Rasen 1pt win
Handicap chase Class 3 2m5½f Good 4 runners

Summer Plate Ladies Day 2027 On Sale Handicap Chase

A four-runner chase that will be run tactically, and Sure Touch loves this track
Our ratings — Market Rasen 15:50
Horse OOS Cond Trn Jky
Nickelforce 128.4 63.2 91 91
Sure Touch 127.4 57.9 96 93
Jet To Vegas 126.2 59.4 89 96
Fringill Dike 125.8 53.4 94 91
On the ratings

Nickelforce is our top rated on 128.4, 1.0lb ahead of Sure Touch. All four runners are covered by 2.6lb, so the figures give us little to separate them.

Form and comment

Nickelforce is a reliable chaser who was fifth in the Summer Plate over course and distance in July. He has form to find with Sure Touch from a course and distance meeting last October, and may not quite stay this trip.

Sure Touch has won three of his four starts here at around this trip, over hurdles and fences, including the 2024 Summer Plate. He was third at Bangor over three miles, a trip that stretches him. Cheekpieces go back on, which is the only question, as he ran poorly in them last summer.

Jet To Vegas won a Grade 2 hurdle and ran a good second over fences at Ascot last November. He finished last season badly and has had breathing operations.

Fringill Dike made all to win over course and distance in June and ran well again here in July. He is 7lb higher and will set the pace.

Verdict

Sure Touch — 1pt win. He is the one to beat. This trip should be perfect for him, and a repeat of his Bangor run should be enough.

16:50 Newmarket No bet
Handicap Class 2 7f Good (good to firm in places) 12 runners

Hunt Family Fund Handicap

A tight handicap, and the blinkers go back on our selection
Our ratings — Newmarket 16:50
Horse OOS Cond Trn Jky
Arctic Dawn 96.8 62.2 80 92
Huscal 96.4 54.4 62 79
Addison Grey 96.2 61.4 71 73
Dapper Guest 95.0 44.2 52 89
The Fingal Raven 95.0 54.6 55 69
Rocking Ends 94.2 55.2 82 52
On the ratings

Arctic Dawn is our top rated on 96.8, just 0.4lb ahead of Huscal and Addison Grey. The Fingal Raven is joint fourth on 95.0. Arctic Dawn is also first on conditions.

Form and comment

Arctic Dawn has won four of his last ten races, most recently over seven furlongs on the July Course. He carried a penalty over a mile on soft ground at York last time, is 4lb lower today, and returns to seven furlongs.

Huscal goes for a hat-trick after front-running wins at Lingfield and Sandown. He is up in grade and may not get an easy lead this time.

Addison Grey won over seven furlongs at Newbury, then found the trip too far on Ascot’s stiffer finish. A strongly run race here could expose the same weakness.

The Fingal Raven has only two wins from 21 starts, but his recent form is solid. He was placed at Goodwood and Ascot and was first home in his group at Newbury last week. The blinkers go back on and Saffie Osborne rides.

Verdict

The Fingal Raven — selection, no bet. He is our pick in a very tight race. Superposition is a non-runner.

17:10 Haydock 2pt win
Handicap Class 4 1m6f Soft 9 runners

William Hill Daily Winnings Boost Handicap

Mick Collins shaped much better than his finishing position at Chester
Our ratings — Haydock 17:10
Horse OOS Cond Trn Jky
Sharp Move 85.3 57.3 96 94
Mick Collins 82.7 61.5 67 79
Gentle Warrior 82.6 53.5 90 83
Trojan Sun 82.6 63.9 77 68
Alther Walden 81.1 62.8 87 96
Yaa Min 80.1 65.2 59 58
On the ratings

Sharp Move is our top rated on 85.3, 2.6lb clear of Mick Collins. Gentle Warrior and Trojan Sun are joint third. Yaa Min is first on conditions but sixth overall.

Form and comment

Sharp Move won a Newcastle maiden easily last November, but he has run three below-par races this year. He was withdrawn from a race five days ago because of soft ground. It is soft again today, and he faces a big step up in trip.

Mick Collins won a maiden on the Flat and over hurdles for Noel Meade and was sold for £70,000 in May. On his second run for Martin Todhunter he was beaten two lengths at Chester over a mile and a half on soft ground, running on well. The longer trip today should suit.

Gentle Warrior won over course and distance a year ago and is only 1lb above that mark. Blinkers replace his usual visor.

Trojan Sun won at Carlisle off this mark and ran well over two and a quarter miles at Musselburgh last time.

Why we are with him. Chester was a jump jockeys’ race run at a slow, untypical pace. Mick Collins was steadied at the start and held up last until the home bend. Given one crack, he made ground along the rail with no effort under hands and heels, and finished close up.

Verdict

Mick Collins — 2pts win. He looks good here. Sharp Move is the danger if he takes to the trip and the ground.

17:30 Market Rasen No bet
Handicap hurdle Class 2 2m½f Good 12 runners

Block Free Services Lincoln Handicap Hurdle

Indian River is the one we like, but he returns after a long break
Our ratings — Market Rasen 17:30
Horse OOS Cond Trn Jky
Squeezebox 126.2 47.8 79 59
Howth 125.8 68.5 79 87
Inappropriate 124.4 64.1 58 60
Indemnity 124.1 70.1 53 80
Morning Mayhem 123.7 57.0 61 71
Belvedere Blast 123.6 52.0 87 71
…
Indian River (9th) 123.4 69.6 87 78
On the ratings

Squeezebox is our top rated on 126.2, 0.4lb ahead of his stablemate Howth. Eleven of the twelve are covered by 5lb, and Indian River is ninth on 123.4.

Indian River’s figure is based on form from his juvenile season. A four-year-old who has had a summer off can come back much improved, which our figures cannot see yet.

Form and comment

Squeezebox won his handicap debut at Southwell in June without coming off the bridle, then ran third in the Summer Hurdle over course and distance. He ran below form at Perth last time.

Howth has won four times here in small fields. He was pulled up on the Flat at Chester last time, but stable jockey Stan Sheppard has picked him over Squeezebox.

Inappropriate was well handicapped when winning over hurdles at Perth. He is 6lb higher in a much stronger race.

Indemnity won the Sussex Champion Hurdle at Plumpton and ran a big race when second in the Summer Hurdle here. He is 4lb higher.

Indian River won three in a row last winter, including his handicap debut, and then ran a career best when third in a Grade 1 at Aintree. This is his first run of the season.

Verdict

Indian River — selection, no bet. Watch the market, as he has been off a long time. If he needs the run, Squeezebox could be the one to benefit.

17:45 Ripon No bet
Handicap Class 4 2m Good 5 runners

Thank You To Our Groundstaff Handicap

Doubts about most of these, and the blinkers go back on Zimmerman
Our ratings — Ripon 17:45
Horse OOS Cond Trn Jky
Talismans Time 76.7 62.2 96 89
Sax Appeal 76.1 60.0 94 89
Zimmerman 75.2 54.2 90 91
Tarbat Ness 74.2 51.4 85 88
Gibside 67.7 44.1 90 93
On the ratings

Talismans Time is our top rated on 76.7, 0.6lb ahead of Sax Appeal, with Zimmerman third on 75.2. The top four are covered by 2.5lb.

Form and comment

Talismans Time won twice at Hamilton last summer but was well beaten at Carlisle last time. He needs to bounce back.

Sax Appeal won seven races in 2025, mostly on the all-weather. He ran better when fourth at Musselburgh two weeks ago and wears blinkers again.

Zimmerman won three races in quick succession this month, including over course and distance. He was fourth at Chester last week and runs off the same mark.

Tarbat Ness has won three times this season and was second at Newcastle last time.

Verdict

Zimmerman — selection, no bet. We have doubts about most of these, but we take Zimmerman with the blinkers back on.

The Staking Plan

Race Selection Stake
Newmarket 13:22 Fire Thunder 1pt win
Newmarket 13:55 First Law 1pt win
Newmarket 14:27 Sun Goddess 3pt win
Newmarket 15:00 Inner City Blues 2pt win
Newmarket 15:40 Gavriel 3pt win
Newmarket 15:40 Hard Endeavor ½pt win
Market Rasen 15:50 Sure Touch 1pt win
Haydock 17:10 Mick Collins 2pt win
8 bets 13½ points

All eight are win bets. Our two biggest stakes go on Sun Goddess, clear top rated in the Cheveley Park, and Gavriel, the least exposed horse in the Cambridgeshire. Fire Thunder is only a bet at 6.2 or bigger.

Selections without a stake

Haydock 13:35  Eternal Force Haydock 14:10  Trilby Ripon 14:16  Zarakova Ripon 14:49  Tiva Haydock 15:15  Angel Gabriel Ripon 15:28  Eye Of Dubai Newmarket 16:50  The Fingal Raven Market Rasen 17:30  Indian River Ripon 17:45  Zimmerman

These are mostly big, competitive handicaps where several runners are covered by a pound or two. Indian River is a market watch after his long break.

Today’s non-runners

Haydock17:10 Gallivanted
Newmarket15:40 Pathein · 16:50 Superposition

All figures above are calculated on the reduced fields.

About the OOS rating

The figures in the tables are our own. OOS blends a horse’s ability, how well today’s conditions suit it, and the strength of its yard and rider into a single number, set on the official-rating scale of the race it runs in. Cond scores ground, trip, class, draw and likely pace shape from the horse’s own record under each. Trn and Jky are current form figures for the trainer and jockey.

The strip above each table shows that race’s whole field, from its lowest OOS figure to its highest, with every runner marked. The green tick is the top rated, and gold marks a horse we have staked. Where our selection sits outside the top six, it is added below the table. Every figure is read against the rest of its own field, never across races.

Stable comments are taken from pre-race press interviews. Our form summaries are our own reading of each horse’s record.

The usual caveat

This is opinion and analysis, not advice. Stake only what you can comfortably afford to lose, and never chase a losing day.

Ratings are a work in progress and are being scored against results as the record builds.