Goodwood Notebook

Why there are no bets today

Nothing on today's card gets near the thresholds. The meetings are low grade, the fields are small enough that the model's rating gaps mean very little, and there is no race where a fair price and an available price are far enough apart to be worth the commission.

So instead: the notebook from the Qatar Goodwood Festival, which finished on Saturday. Five days, forty-odd races, and a fistful of horses that ran better than the result sheet says. This is where next month's prices come from — the Ebor meeting at York is three weeks away, and the horses on this list are the ones the market will be arguing about when it gets here.

First, the meeting itself

Tuesday was run on good, good to firm in places. From Wednesday onwards the course was watered and rode good to firm throughout, with a GoingStick of 7.4 on Thursday. Nothing softened all week. That matters for two of the horses below and it is the single biggest reason to be careful with a third.

Two patterns are worth carrying forward.

The Al Jehani yard was live in the big handicaps. Hamad Al Jehani won the Golden Mile with Archivist at 16/1 (23.0 on the exchange) and the Stewards' Cup with Evening Saigon at 16/1 (22.0). He also had Colombier finishing strongly from the worst draw of twenty on the Wednesday. Two 16/1 winners in the meeting's two most competitive handicaps is not a coincidence you ignore.

The Stewards' Cup was set up for closers, and that cuts both ways. Get It led and finished seventeenth. Gold Star Hero went forward and finished eighteenth. The first five home all came from behind. When you read below that two horses "finished with running left" in that race, hold that thought — the race shape was doing some of that work for them.

How to read this list

These are not selections. Nobody here is a bet at a price nobody has quoted yet.

What a note means is narrower than most horses-to-follow pieces admit. It means: the finishing position understates the run, for a reason I can name, and that reason is likely to be absent next time. A horse that was short of room has a claim. A horse that simply wasn't good enough does not, however sympathetically you describe the last furlong.

Group one: horses that never got a clear run

Diego El Queso (G M Lyons) — Chesterfield Cup, sixth of seventeen at 6/1 having been backed in from 9/2. Drawn seventeen, awkward away, held up, and then out of room twice inside the final two furlongs before finishing off strongly. Beaten around three and a half lengths in a race where he was never able to build momentum. The Irish yard doesn't cross for these lightly and he is unexposed at the level.

Colombier (Hamad Al Jehani) — sixth of twenty in Wednesday's 7f handicap off 95, beaten under two lengths, from stall twenty. Held up because he had no other option from that berth, still travelling well two out, and then squeezed for room just as he wanted to go. He was closing at the line. In a race won from a mid-division draw, he was doing his best running when the race was already decided.

Toca Madera (David O'Meara) — fifth in the Stewards' Cup at 25/1, beaten a length and a quarter, drawn twenty-six on the stands side. Took a strong hold, was travelling nicely on the heels of the leading group, and was locked in from a furlong out before getting daylight too late. What lifts this above the usual hard-luck story is that he had already run over five furlongs on the Tuesday, dead-heating for fourth. Two runs in five days at a meeting like that, and he was still finishing his race on Saturday.

Completely Random (Harry Charlton) — fourth in the Stewards' Cup at 7/1, beaten a neck for third and less than half a length for the race. Ridden with complete patience, driven from two out, and running on when it was over. He is a listed winner on artificial surfaces proving the turf form transfers.

Mia Fantasia (Hugo Palmer) — sixth in Thursday's nursery, sent off 2/1 favourite on his handicap debut. Bumped two out, then blocked, then finding room only inside the final hundred yards. The official record notes he was denied a clear run and flags him as an eyecatcher. The winner made every yard from the front in a race where nobody got near the pace.

Birgham Dub (Jane Chapple-Hyam) — sixth in the Kincsem, beaten around two lengths, and doing all his best work late. There was a faller a furlong and a half out and he was among those inconvenienced. This was only his second run in handicaps and his first over the trip since a debut effort. He will be winning one of these.

Tony Montana (Kevin Philippart de Foy) — fourth in the Chesterfield Cup at 18/1 under 7lb claimer Toby Moore, having come from the back of a seventeen-runner field and been closing hardest of all at the line. He was giving the winner a start and had further to make up than either the second or third.

Lexington Blitz (Robert Cowell) — sixth in Tuesday's five-furlong sprint handicap off 98, a length and a bit off a race won by Twilight Calls. Missed the break, was then racing away from where the race was being decided, and had to be switched. Everything about how the race unfolded was wrong for him.

Group two: right horse, wrong day

Rhoscolyn (David O'Meara) — nineteenth of twenty on Wednesday, and there is no dressing that up. But he is a previous winner of that exact race, taking the 2023 running on heavy ground, and he won last year's Golden Mile. On good to firm with no rain in the forecast he was never going to be involved, and connections knew it: he was declared a non-runner for Friday's Golden Mile rather than run him again on the same surface. That is the note. He is a horse for the autumn, and he wants a soft-ground day at this track. Write the trainer's decision down, not the beaten distance.

Walsingham (David O'Meara) — fifth in the Golden Mile at 100/1, beaten two and three-quarter lengths, drawn sixteen and ridden by Toby Moore taking off seven pounds. He traded at 247 on the exchange. He got a wide passage and made it work, and he proved he handles ground quicker than good on an undulating track. He is well treated at a lower level and is another that will be more interesting once the ground turns.

Scoville (William Haggas) — thirteenth in the Golden Mile at 17/2 from stall eighteen. He was pushed forward, took the lead after two furlongs, was still there entering the final furlong and then emptied. The pattern is legible: he was made to work far too hard far too early to get across from a wide draw. He has a run style suited to a strongly-run mile handicap in a big field where he doesn't have to force the issue.

The Man (Richard Spencer) — thirteenth in Tuesday's five furlongs, in first-time cheekpieces with a tongue tie back on. Missed the break and then had to make his effort away from the main action. He is on a workable mark now.

Proposal (William Haggas) — fifth of fourteen in the Bolney fillies' handicap off 77, beaten about two lengths, stepping up in class on her return. She was staying on at the finish and looks likely to want further than a mile.

Group three: the note you don't act on yet

Majestic Flame (Richard Hughes) — sixth on debut in a maiden won by Avalon Queen, with an odds-on Ballydoyle filly only just denied in second. She was ridden considerately, came home in her own time, and had plenty left. A juvenile's second run is where the improvement normally shows. She is a horse to have on the tracker, not a horse to back next time on faith.

Now the warning, because it is the whole point

"Unlucky in running" is the most expensive phrase in racing.

Every one of the horses above will be shorter next time than the form book alone justifies. That is not a market failure — it is the market doing exactly what it should, because the reading is right. The problem for us is that the reading is public. Trouble-in-running notes appear in every form service in the country within twelve hours of the race, and by the time a horse like Colombier or Mia Fantasia next appears, the excuse is already in the price.

Three specific things to be honest about:

The handicapper reads too. Completely Random and Toca Madera both posted performance figures above their official marks in the Stewards' Cup. They will not be racing off the same numbers by York.

The race shape was doing some of the work. In a Stewards' Cup where every front-runner faded and the first five all came from off the pace, "finished with running left" is a description of the race as much as of the horse. Discount both accordingly.

A wide draw is not automatically an excuse. Walsingham was drawn sixteen in the Golden Mile and finished fifth at 100/1. Scoville was drawn eighteen and finished thirteenth. Same race, same problem, different outcome — which means the draw alone doesn't explain either run, and the ride does.

So: fourteen horses go in the notebook. My guess is that two or three of them will be actually worth backing at the price we'll be offered, and I don't yet know which two. That is what the tissue is for. When these turn up at York, they get priced from scratch like everything else, and if the number isn't there we pass — however good the note reads.

The shortlist

Selections hopefully resume tomorrow. Every bet struck and every bet passed is published, win or lose.