King George VI Preview: Benvenuto Cellini Can Announce Himself on the World Stage

The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes has produced a genuinely international contest worthy of its £2 million prize fund. Defending champion Calandagan heads a field of nine on good-to-firm ground, with Japan represented by Masquerade Ball, while Aidan O’Brien launches a powerful four-horse challenge led by Irish Derby winner Benvenuto Cellini.

Calandagan is unquestionably the horse they all have to beat. However, at the prices, our preference is for the younger and potentially still-improving Benvenuto Cellini.

The market may underestimate Cellini

Our ratings place Benvenuto Cellini at the head of the field with a composite figure of 137, ahead of Calandagan on 132.5. More significantly from a betting perspective, our tissue has Cellini at 4.4, while he was trading at approximately 6.0 at the time of writing.

Calandagan, by comparison, was available at around 2.9, shorter than our tissue price of 4.0. That does not mean Calandagan is the wrong favourite. His achievements fully justify his position at the top of the market. The question is whether his price properly reflects the strength of the opposition.

At close to 5/1, Cellini offers us a much more attractive risk-and-reward proposition.

Ballydoyle can make this a searching test

The shape of the race could be crucial.

Aidan O’Brien is responsible for four of the nine runners, with Action and Lambourn appearing likely to ensure the race is run at a demanding tempo. Action made the running in both the Derby and Irish Derby, while Lambourn has recently been used in a pace-setting role.

The likely intention will be to turn the King George into a proper test of stamina and sustained speed rather than allow Calandagan to travel comfortably before producing his exceptional change of gear.

Calandagan is usually held up, travels powerfully and possesses a devastating finishing burst. If the field allows him to cruise into the straight within striking distance, he will be extremely difficult to contain. Ballydoyle therefore have every incentive to begin applying pressure early, stretching the race out and forcing the favourite to use more energy before the final furlong.

A strong gallop should also help Ryan Moore settle Cellini from stall nine before gradually working his way into the contest.

There should be more to come

Benvenuto Cellini has already established himself as a high-class colt, but the most important part of his profile is that we may not yet have seen his full ability.

His Derby experience can effectively be ignored. After becoming caught in the stalls, he was subsequently deemed a non-runner, and the testing conditions would probably have been against him in any case.

He returned to a sounder surface in the Irish Derby and produced a much more representative performance, defeating Epsom winner Christmas Day by a length and three-quarters. He travelled into the race strongly, moved to the front smoothly and appeared to do only what was required after taking over. The Racing Post describes him as possessing “star potential”, while Racing TV noted that the confidence surrounding him suggests another step forward is anticipated.

The Irish Derby performance was not necessarily the finished article. Cellini still showed signs of inexperience and appeared to have something left in reserve at the finish. This will be a substantially tougher race, but it may also be the stronger gallop and higher level of competition that unlocks further improvement.

His pedigree gives further encouragement. By Frankel out of Breeders’ Cup winner Newspaperofrecord, he combines stamina with considerable natural speed. Good-to-firm ground should allow him to use those qualities much more effectively than the rain-softened surface he encountered at Epsom.

The weight allowance matters

As a three-year-old colt, Benvenuto Cellini carries 8st 12lb, receiving 11lb from the older colts and geldings, including Calandagan and Masquerade Ball.

That allowance does not automatically bridge the current ratings gap, but it gives an improving three-year-old a genuine opportunity against more established older horses. Cellini does not need to have reached Calandagan’s absolute level already. He needs to improve enough from the Irish Derby to make full use of the weight concession.

The fact that Ryan Moore rides Cellini rather than Minnie Hauk is another positive. Minnie Hauk is a multiple Classic winner who finished only a head away from winning the Arc last season, so Moore’s mount is clearly significant, even though riding arrangements should never be treated as conclusive evidence of the stable hierarchy.

Calandagan remains the standard

There are no obvious weaknesses in Calandagan’s profile under today’s conditions.

He won this race last year, has an excellent Ascot record and quickly put his disappointing Coronation Cup performance behind him by winning the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. Although the winning margin there was narrow, he came from the rear in a stop-start race and was always doing enough once reaching the front.

Sky Sports Racing’s Jamie Lynch strongly favours the defending champion, arguing that his international record demonstrates that he can cope with almost any type of race. The Racing Post also selects Calandagan, while Timeform expects him to retain his title.

He is clearly the most likely winner. But the most likely winner and the best bet are not always the same horse. It is only 20 days since his last run at St Cloud and this also adds a little bit of spice to ther puzzle.

Masquerade Ball brings a serious Japanese challenge

Masquerade Ball may be the biggest threat outside the two principals.

He was beaten only a head by Calandagan in last year’s Japan Cup after having to make his challenge from further back than ideal. His subsequent second behind the brilliant Romantic Warrior over ten furlongs at Sha Tin suggested he has continued to progress as a four-year-old.

The Guardian selects Masquerade Ball and reports that his trainer believes he has developed both physically and mentally since last season. Sky Sports Racing describes him as the strongest Japanese challenger yet sent to the King George.

He is respected enormously, although his tendency to race towards the rear could leave him facing the same tactical challenge as Calandagan if Ballydoyle succeed in breaking the race apart.

Minnie Hauk should appreciate returning to a mile and a half, while Ascot specialist Kalpana and former winner Goliath give the race exceptional depth. This is certainly not simply a match between the favourite and our selection. I know quite a few shrewdies who are looking at Goliath as an each way option.

Verdict

Calandagan sets an imposing standard and deserves to be favourite, but his price leaves little room for error in one of the strongest King George fields for many years.

Benvenuto Cellini receives an important weight-for-age allowance, is ideally suited by the sound surface and arrives after a performance in the Irish Derby that suggested there was more beneath the bonnet. The likely strong pace should play to his stamina and give Ryan Moore the opportunity to gradually increase the pressure rather than attempt to outsprint Calandagan from a standing start.