One Bet Today – Barak Warrior Can Strike Again at Leicester

It is a relatively quiet betting day for us, with just one selection, but there is enough to like about Barak Warrior in the 3:34 at Leicester to make him a confident play.

We don't often dip our toe into Class 5 handicaps, but occasionally a race presents itself where the form, ratings and likely market all point towards an interesting opportunity. Today's six-runner TLC Teddies For Loving Care Handicap over just short of a mile and a half looks one of those races, and Barak Warrior is top rated on our figures.

Barak Warrior – Bath Form Looks Stronger By The Week

The starting point has to be Barak Warrior's victory at Bath on 1 July.

Making his handicap debut from a mark of 62, the three-year-old was not particularly impressive during the early stages. He raced towards the rear and needed some encouragement before gradually working his way into contention. Once the race began in earnest, however, it was a different story.

Silvestre De Sousa produced him to challenge late, Barak Warrior took the lead inside the final furlong and stayed on strongly to beat the well-backed 11/8 favourite Campeona by two lengths. The Racing Post noted afterwards that the gelding had benefited from both being gelded and the significant step up in trip.

What has happened since makes that performance particularly interesting.

Campeona has won all three of her subsequent starts. She won at Bath from 61, followed up at Newbury from 67 and then completed the hat-trick at Lingfield on 1 August, this time racing from a mark of 71.

Barak Warrior beat her convincingly when she was receiving weight at Bath.

That is a significant piece of collateral form.

The handicapper has reacted by raising Barak Warrior 7lb from 62 to 69, but given what Campeona has done subsequently, there is every reason to think he remains competitive from his new mark.

Just as importantly, there should be absolutely no concern about today's distance. Barak Warrior saw out every yard at Bath and was strongest where it mattered. The extra few yards at Leicester certainly shouldn't inconvenience him.

Al Maslool – The Obvious Rival

The early favourite is Al Maslool, representing the powerful William Haggas yard and partnered today by Cieren Fallon.

He comes here after getting his head in front at Chester last time, but it was about as narrow as victories come. After meeting some trouble in running, he got up right on the line in a typical Chester blanket finish.

He is clearly progressive enough to warrant respect, and runners from the Haggas stable are rarely ignored by the market.

There are, however, reasons for taking him on at the prices. He was quite free during that Chester contest and today's test is different. Leicester asks a horse to keep finding all the way to the line, and I am not completely convinced that a horse who expends too much energy during the early stages will necessarily be seen to best effect.

He can certainly win, but at the respective prices we much prefer Barak Warrior.

Mountbatten – The Danger

Mountbatten is perhaps the more intriguing danger.

His profile has all the hallmarks of a typical Sir Mark Prescott improver. After being brought along at shorter distances, he was dramatically stepped up in trip when sent handicapping and duly won at Southwell.

Things didn't go according to plan when he was sent off a very short-priced favourite at Yarmouth next time. He led for much of the contest but came under pressure some way from home and eventually finished last of four over 1m6f.

That run is easily forgiven.

The longer trip may simply have stretched him a little too far, and today's return to approximately 1m4f looks more suitable. Sir Mark now reaches for first-time cheekpieces, which adds another element of intrigue.

I would certainly not dismiss him on the back of one disappointing performance. He is the horse I fear most.

The Bet

Ultimately, however, everything brings us back to Barak Warrior.

He is top rated on our figures, his Bath victory has been significantly boosted by Campeona's subsequent hat-trick, he stays the trip strongly and there should still be more to come from a three-year-old who has had just four starts.

There is another interesting angle here too. Trainer James Keane is only in the early stages of his training career in Newmarket, and Barak Warrior was the horse who provided him with that Bath success. Keane has not had the huge number of runners associated with the bigger yards, so there is every possibility that the market still underestimates one with further improvement to come.

Our tissue price is 3.7.

At the time of writing the early market is around 3.3, which is a little shorter than we want to take. However, this is still very early and I would expect plenty of market support for both Al Maslool and Mountbatten, particularly given the Haggas and Prescott connections.

There is therefore no reason to chase the price. I think there is a reasonable chance we will get our 3.7 or better closer to the race.