Sunday at Chester: One Bet, One Point
Yesterday
Six bets, six losses, minus ten points. The worst day since we started publishing, and it gave back most of a profitable week.
Gone By was the headline and the humiliation. We struck at 16.04 against a fair price of 6.17 — a 160% overlay, the largest figure this model has ever produced — after she drifted from 9.00 overnight through 12.00 and 15.00. She finished tailed off last at a starting price of 29.00. Romantic Symphony won it at 2.40. Obviously, those in the know were laying the horse all day - we know that she is better than what was produced yesterday.
The rest: In My Teens sixth in the Glorious Stakes, and she was our widest margin of the day at 5.5 points clear. Northern Express third, Sierra Sands fourth, First Officer fourth, Rollthedicebaby sixth.
The week's record now stands at 15 bets, 3 winners, 27 points staked, plus 3.23 points, an ROI of 11.9%. A week's work reduced to roughly break-even by a single afternoon. That's racing!
Today's ground
Chester is Good, GoingStick 6.4, with watering. That matches our conditions input, so nothing needs discounting.
Note the rail movements, which are substantial: plus 64 yards for the opener, plus 39 yards for the middle races and plus 45 yards for the finale. Every race is run over further than the card says. On a track as tight and idiosyncratic as the Roodee that matters more than the yardage suggests — it lengthens the run and slightly reduces the premium on early position.
Our card today covers four of Chester's six races. Nothing from Yarmouth.
14:10 Chester — Class 4 Handicap, 1m4f63y
Top rated: Timber Twelve. Clear by 1.9. NO BET — below the new floor.
Andrew Balding's gelding won 1m all-weather novices on his first two starts, ran well over 10.3f here, and produced a much-improved effort when readily winning a ten-runner event at Epsom over a mile and a half a month ago — leading, kicking on over three out, going clear over two and only being closed down inside the final hundred yards. He is drawn in stall one, which at Chester is the draw everyone wants.
All of which the market has seen. He is 3.10 against a fair price of 3.52, so 12% the wrong side even before the margin rule bites. The margin is 1.9 which is close to threshold but the price makes the question academic.
15:20 Chester — Class 1, 6f17y
Top rated: Calico Blue. Clear by 0.7. NO BET.
Seven-tenths of a point. Our model cannot separate this race and says so. Too tight to call.
Our notebook horse, Calico Blue is a sprinter going places — three wins from three over course and distance, the latest in a seven-runner handicap here just last week, building on in-frame efforts in competitive handicaps. We expect him to make his mark at listed level at some stage. He has been backed from 3.50 into 2.46 against a fair price of 4.42, which is 44% shorter than our assessment and the most emphatic disagreement on the card.
Notebook, and it is an interesting one: both horses immediately behind him have drifted while he has steamed. Jazl is 9.80 against a fair price of 5.86 — a 67% overlay on a gelded and vastly improved sprinter who beat Calico Blue at Newmarket in June and whose only blip this season came at Royal Ascot off an impossible draw. Lifeplan is 6.80 against 4.85, a 40% overlay on the Gimcrack winner, with eleven months off to forgive.
We are not backing either yet. But a race where the favourite is 44% too short on our figures and both dangers are 40%+ overlays is the clearest illustration yet of the question - do we punt each way if we can get value.
15:52 Chester — Class 2 Handicap, 7f1y
Top rated: Dance In The Storm. Clear by 4.2. NO BET on price.
The best margin on the card, but the price is nowhere near.
She took another step forward after seven months off when landing a thirteen-runner course-and-distance handicap in May from stall 11, and shaped very well in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot despite being scuppered by her draw for the second start running — coming home first in her group and suggesting she is at the top of her game. She gets the widest stall again today, which at Chester is a real problem rather than a quibble.
She is 2.48 against a fair price of 3.26, so 24% too short. A 4.2-point margin would be a two-point bet at the right price. This is not the right price.
Notebook: Power Fizz at 7.40 against 6.15 and Korker at 19.50 against 13.50 are both drifting overlays behind her.
16:52 Chester — Tom Jones Live Handicap (Class 4, 1m2f70y)
BET: Saligo Bay. 1 point. Fair 5.96, target 6.20, available 7.80. Clear by 2.9.
He was a prolific winner last year including over this course on the Flat in September, a race that has produced winners since, and he improved a good deal over hurdles after that. His most recent run was a Cartmel amateur handicap hurdle over 17.2f where he was eighth of eleven off a much higher mark after six months off — he pressed the leader, was pushed along after two out, was still close up crossing the last and faded on the run-in. It seems he needed the run, and we expect him to be sharper for the spin. This is a shorter trip than he usually runs on the flat, his last flat win was over 12f off a mark of 74. He runs 14f off a mark of 77 today.
At 7.80 against a fair price of 5.96 that is a 31% overlay, comfortably clear of the 6.20 target.
He is classified a drifter, having gone from 5.00 last night to 7.80. Hold into the final window rather than striking now, and expect a better price than the one on screen.
The card at a glance
| Time | Selection | Clear by | Tier | Fair | Target | Avail | EV | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:10 | Timber Twelve | 1.9 | Below floor | 3.52 | 5.30 | 3.10 | −12% | No bet |
| 15:20 | Calico Blue | 0.7 | Below floor | 4.42 | 5.10 | 2.46 | −44% | No bet |
| 15:52 | Dance In The Storm | 4.2 | 2pt | 3.26 | 3.40 | 2.48 | −24% | No bet |
| 16:52 | Saligo Bay | 2.9 | 1pt | 5.96 | 6.20 | 7.80 | +31% | 1 |
Confirmed exposure: 1 point — half a percent of bank. Prices are Betfair exchange this morning and the markets are thin.
The discipline note
One bet, one point, on a four-race card. That is what a Sunday at Chester looks like and anyone hoping for more from a betting page is reading the wrong one.
Timber Twelve misses the floor by a tenth of a point — 1.9 against a threshold of 2.0 — which is the sort of margin that makes a rule feel arbitrary. It is arbitrary, in the sense that 1.9 and 2.0 are not meaningfully different quantities. What is not arbitrary is having a line at all, and the alternative to a slightly arbitrary line is deciding case by case, which is how discipline dies. He was a no-bet on price regardless, so nothing turns on it today.
And Saligo Bay sits at 2.9 — inside the 2.0-to-3.0 band.
Note also the shape of the day. Our best-rated race by a distance is the 15:52, where Dance In The Storm is 4.2 points clear — and she is a no-bet because she is 24% too short. Our one bet comes from a race we rate less confidently, on a horse whose price came to us. That is the same inversion as Friday and Saturday: the rating decides whether we have a view, the price decides whether it is worth money, and the margin decides how much. Three days running, the money has gone where the price was, not where the opinion was. Over the longer term we think that approach will show dividends.
The standing item remains, and today it is louder than usual. In the 15:20 our top-rated is 44% too short while the two horses immediately behind him are 67% and 40% overlays. Our staking arms only the top-rated, so we watch all three. Six weeks of logging will tell us whether that rule is protecting us or quietly costing us a fortune.
One housekeeping note we owe readers. Yesterday's Gone By was not an unlucky loser — it was a bet we should not have had, on a horse the market was telling us about all morning in a language we chose not to read. The staking discipline limited it to two points, which is exactly what the tier system is for. But no amount of correct sizing turns a bad bet into a good one.
Watch the markets in the final two minutes. The true price forms late, and we settle at Betfair SP as always.
Good luck.
— The OutandOutStayer
Betting should be enjoyable and affordable. Only stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and if it ever stops feeling like a hobby, help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
